Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

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Tropical Cyclone 02B in the North Indian Ocean has recently been upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Mora, and has continued to become better organized today as it tracks northward through the Bay of Bengal. As of 18:00 UTC this afternoon, 02B had 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 35 knots and 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 40 knots. Just recently, the India Meteorological Department named the system Mora. Mora is the second named storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season….

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Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

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Update 5:00 PM EDT: Invest 94B has now developed into Tropical Cyclone 02B. Invest 94B in the Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean is nearly a tropical cyclone. 94B has had persistent deep convection for several hours now, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the circulation of the system was well-defined. The ASCAT pass also showed winds of tropical storm force. 94B is likely to develop into Cyclonic Storm Mora during the next day or two, and could…

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Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Yesterday, Britain-based meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an updated forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted that the 2017 Atlantic season would have near-normal activity overall, with 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 6 (+/- 3) hurricanes and 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 98 (+/- 48). This is an increase from their previous forecast on April 5, in which they predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

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It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in…

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NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

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As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45%…

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My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

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It is not often you see East Pacific hurricane season forecasts, so I decided to make my own. NOAA is likely going to release their East Pacific hurricane season forecast later today, but most other agencies do not release seasonal forecasts for the East Pacific basin. Last season, the East Pacific basin saw an above-average season with 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, despite a weak La Niña – which typically suppresses the East Pacific basin. The…

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2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

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Tomorrow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their official 2017 forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. This forecast is usually the most anticipated one of the year. Last year, NOAA predicted in late May that the Atlantic would see 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast verified quite well at the upper end of the range, with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season seeing 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes…

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Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

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As we approach the start of Atlantic hurricane season, a term you may see pop up now and then is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy.” Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measurement of the activity of a hurricane season, based on storm intensity and duration. It is calculated for each individual storm by taking the sum of the storm’s intensity, in knots, squared, at six-hour intervals, divided by 10000. For instance, if a storm had 40-knot winds for one advisory, the ACE…

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Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

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Sunday’s model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have nearly abandoned the idea of tropical development in the East Pacific or Caribbean. None of the 12z Sunday GFS or ECMWF runs showed development of a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere over the next 10 days. In fact, meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center practically said to disregard Caribbean storms shown on the GFS model at this point in the season, posting on Twitter: “GFS seems like it…

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Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

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The tropics may not be quiet for much longer. Some tropical development is possible next week, but models are not in agreement on which basin will see activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently unfavorable, but both the GFS and CFS models show the MJO becoming more favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic by the week 2 period. The 12z Saturday ECMWF model indicated the possibility of development in the East Pacific about 7-8 days out, while the…

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