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Month: September 2018

Leslie now a tropical storm over the central Atlantic, Rosa headed for Baja California, Sergio and Walaka form

Leslie now a tropical storm over the central Atlantic, Rosa headed for Baja California, Sergio and Walaka form

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There are several systems to watch in the tropics today in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. In the Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Leslie has transitioned into a tropical storm, and could become a hurricane by late next week though it is not likely to impact any land areas in the near future. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Rosa is likely to weaken and strike northern Baja California as a tropical storm, while Tropical Storm Sergio has formed south of Mexico….

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Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

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Although the Atlantic currently has no tropical cyclones active, there are four systems being monitored for potential development. The first, Invest 97L, is an area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands which is headed for less favorable conditions, and development appears unlikely. The second, Invest 98L, is a broad area of low pressure southeast of Bermuda, which could gradually gain tropical characteristics some time next week. The third, Invest 99L, is a vigorous tropical wave which has recently…

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Florence slightly weaker but still a major threat to Carolinas, Helene and Isaac weakening, SS Joyce forms over the subtropical Atlantic, 95L likely to develop

Florence slightly weaker but still a major threat to Carolinas, Helene and Isaac weakening, SS Joyce forms over the subtropical Atlantic, 95L likely to develop

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The Atlantic is extremely active today, with six – SIX! – systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The most serious and strongest of these systems is Hurricane Florence, which has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but is still expected to bring potentially catastrophic impact to the coast of the Carolinas. In addition, Hurricane Helene is gradually weakening as it heads for a less favorable environment, and Tropical Storm Isaac east of the Caribbean has become very…

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Tuesday evening Florence update: Maintaining Category 4 strength

Tuesday evening Florence update: Maintaining Category 4 strength

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Hurricane Florence has changed little in intensity today. Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that Florence has not strengthened since this afternoon. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Florence was centered near 28.4°N 68.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 946 mb. However, reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that this intensity may be a little generous. Florence continues to pose…

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Florence likely to strike Carolinas as a dangerous major hurricane, Helene and Isaac also expected to become hurricanes over tropical Atlantic

Florence likely to strike Carolinas as a dangerous major hurricane, Helene and Isaac also expected to become hurricanes over tropical Atlantic

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Hurricane Florence is becoming a major concern for the southeastern United States coast. Florence regained hurricane strength Sunday morning, and is expected to rapidly intensify into a powerful Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday. Florence is now moving into more favorable conditions, and intensification appears to be starting once again. Florence is likely to make landfall in the Carolinas as a major hurricane late Thursday night or early Friday morning, though it is still not out of the question that Florence…

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Very busy Atlantic tropics: Florence an increasing concern for U.S. East Coast, TD 8 forms southeast of Cabo Verde, TD 9 forms over the central tropical Atlantic

Very busy Atlantic tropics: Florence an increasing concern for U.S. East Coast, TD 8 forms southeast of Cabo Verde, TD 9 forms over the central tropical Atlantic

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With only three days until the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the Atlantic basin is extremely busy today, with four tropical cyclones currently active – TS Florence, TD Gordon, TD Eight and TD Nine. This is the first time the Atlantic has had four simultaneously active tropical cyclones since 2008. Of these, Florence is the most imminent land threat. TS Florence expected to restrengthen this weekend, increasing risk to the United States East Coast Tropical Storm Florence has…

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Florence significantly weaker but expected to restrengthen, 92L and 93L likely to become Helene and Isaac

Florence significantly weaker but expected to restrengthen, 92L and 93L likely to become Helene and Isaac

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Due to strong wind shear, Hurricane Florence has become much less organized today, weakening into a Category 1 hurricane. Florence is likely to fall below hurricane strength tonight or early tomorrow, but is likely to begin restrengthening by Saturday as it enters a more favorable environment. Florence is expected to pass south of Bermuda next Tuesday, though direct impacts are still possible to the small island. It is a possibility that Florence could impact the United States East Coast, though…

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Florence vaults to Category 4 status, Gordon weakening inland, 92L expected to develop

Florence vaults to Category 4 status, Gordon weakening inland, 92L expected to develop

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Somewhat unexpectedly, Hurricane Florence rapidly intensified into the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday morning, and has since strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane. Last night, Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall near the Alabama-Mississippi border as a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and has rapidly weakened to a tropical depression today. There is also Invest 92L to watch in the eastern Atlantic, which is likely to become a tropical depression by…

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TS Gordon nearing landfall over the Northern Gulf Coast, Florence now a hurricane over the open Atlantic, 92L expected to develop

TS Gordon nearing landfall over the Northern Gulf Coast, Florence now a hurricane over the open Atlantic, 92L expected to develop

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The Atlantic tropics are very busy today, with Florence becoming the third hurricane of the season, Tropical Storm Gordon nearing landfall near the Alabama-Mississippi border, and two more tropical waves (including Invest 92L) are likely to develop by this weekend. The peak of the season is here, and the Atlantic is likely to remain quite busy for the next couple weeks. Gordon likely to make landfall as a strong tropical storm in a couple hours Tropical Storm Gordon has failed…

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Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

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As we near the peak of hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific are both quite active today. Tropical Storm Florence over the eastern tropical Atlantic has weakened slightly this morning as its low-level circulation has become exposed.  Invest 91L, currently located near the Bahamas, is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple days. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Norman has re-attained Category 4 hurricane status, while Tropical Storm Olivia…

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