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Month: October 2017

Philippe dissipates, two non-threatening disturbances could develop

Philippe dissipates, two non-threatening disturbances could develop

The short life of Tropical Storm Philippe came to an end on Sunday afternoon, as strong shear and a merger with a cold front has caused Philippe’s well-defined circulation to lose definition to the point where it can longer be considered a tropical cyclone. After Philippe, there are two non-threatening disturbances – one in the Atlantic and one in the Eastern Pacific – that could develop into a tropical cyclone as we get into November, the final month of the…

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Poorly organized Philippe forms near Cuba, Selma dissipates

Poorly organized Philippe forms near Cuba, Selma dissipates

On Saturday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen, and has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Philippe – the sixteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Philippe is a poorly organized tropical storm, and does not have a structure very typical of one. Philippe is now expected to make landfall in Southwestern Florida early Sunday morning, but because of the unusual nature of the storm, Tropical Storm Warnings have not been issued for any…

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PTC 18 expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Selma to bring heavy rains to Central America

PTC 18 expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Selma to bring heavy rains to Central America

The tropical disturbance over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, previously known as Invest 93L, has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. Eighteen is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe on Saturday, and is expected to make landfall in western Cuba as a tropical storm. PTC Eighteen poised to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Warnings issued for parts of Cuba and the Bahamas As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was centered near 18.2°N 84.4°W, and was…

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Invest 93L over Caribbean still may develop, but Invest 92E in East Pacific more likely to develop

Invest 93L over Caribbean still may develop, but Invest 92E in East Pacific more likely to develop

There are two tropical disturbances currently being monitored for development – Invest 93L over the Western Caribbean Sea and Invest 92E over the Eastern Pacific. Both have the opportunity to develop through the weekend. Invest 93L still could become a tropical cyclone, likely to help boost a nor’easter early next week The broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean – Invest 93L – has not become much better organized today. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 93L was…

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Little change with Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

Little change with Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized since yesterday. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 93L was centered near 13.0°N 83.4°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. It should be noted that an ASCAT pass from earlier today suggests that this wind estimate may be generous. 93L is producing widespread, but poorly organized, thunderstorms, both inland Central America and over the…

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93L over Western Caribbean may develop this week

93L over Western Caribbean may develop this week

A broad, but not very well organized, area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Nicaraguan Coast. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 93L, and has a medium chance of becoming Tropical Depression Eighteen or Tropical Storm Philippe by late week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 93L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, 93L was centered near 14.0°N 83.0°W, and was…

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Tropical development possible over Western Caribbean late this week

Tropical development possible over Western Caribbean late this week

The Atlantic hurricane season may be winding down, but it does not appear to be over yet. This week, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, and some gradual tropical development is possible. The Southwestern Caribbean is an area of the Atlantic basin favored for tropical development by climatology in late October. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a…

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Lan slowly strengthening – expected to brush Japan on Sunday and Monday

Lan slowly strengthening – expected to brush Japan on Sunday and Monday

Typhoon Lan has slowly – rather than rapidly – intensified over the Western Pacific. Unlike the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which has featured well above average activity, the 2017 Pacific typhoon season has seen well below-average activity in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – only about 55 percent of normal. It appears unlikely now that Lan will be able to intensify into a super typhoon (150+ mph 1-minute sustained winds), although it cannot be ruled out yet. The Western Pacific has…

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Atlantic and East Pacific both quiet, Typhoon Lan a threat to Japan

Atlantic and East Pacific both quiet, Typhoon Lan a threat to Japan

The Atlantic and East Pacific are both quiet today, with no tropical cyclones active or expected to form in the next five days. There is only one tropical cyclone worldwide – Typhoon Lan in the Western Pacific, which could pose a possible threat to Japan later this week. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Lan was centered near 12.1°N 132.3°E. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 977 mb. Lan is likely to strengthen…

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Ophelia now a post-tropical cyclone, expected to pass near British Isles on Monday

Ophelia now a post-tropical cyclone, expected to pass near British Isles on Monday

Hurricane Ophelia has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds this evening. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Ophelia was centered near 49.2°N 13.3°W and was moving northward at about 44 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 969 mb. The center of Ophelia is expected to pass over Western Ireland and then Northwestern Scotland on Monday, while slowly weakening as it moves quickly northeastward. Ex-Ophelia should dissipate by Tuesday. I will be back…

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