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Month: July 2017

Tropical Storm Emily rapidly develops near Tampa Bay, makes landfall in Anna Marie Island

Tropical Storm Emily rapidly develops near Tampa Bay, makes landfall in Anna Marie Island

Invest 98L rapidly developed a small well-defined circulation as it separated from a cold front early Monday, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Six at 6:00 a.m. EDT this morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT, Six was upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily based on Doppler radar velocity data. Emily has since made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida at 10:45 a.m. EDT this morning. The cyclone was centered near 27.5°N 82.7°W, and was moving eastward at…

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Invest 98L has a low chance to develop over Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Noru rapidly intensifies to Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone of 2017

Invest 98L has a low chance to develop over Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Noru rapidly intensifies to Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone of 2017

A well-defined area of low pressure located along a dissipating cold front in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico was designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Sunday morning. Aside from 98L, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is becoming less likely to develop due to dry air. In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Noru explosively intensified to Earth’s first category 5 tropical cyclone of 2017, but has since weakened slightly. In the Eastern Pacific, Hilary has now…

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Yet another Atlantic tropical wave could develop, but dry air likely to limit development

Yet another Atlantic tropical wave could develop, but dry air likely to limit development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave for development over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) has seen a total of eight disturbances so far monitored by the NHC – significantly more than the only one each in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The NHC gives this tropical wave, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance…

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Hilary and Irwin change little, Typhoon Nesat headed for Taiwan, 97L not expected to develop

Hilary and Irwin change little, Typhoon Nesat headed for Taiwan, 97L not expected to develop

The global tropics remain active today, but little has changed since yesterday. Hurricane Hilary weakened to a tropical storm last night, and has changed little in strength today. Tropical Storm Irwin has also changed very little in strength. The eastern Atlantic disturbance was briefly designated Invest 97L last night, but was quickly dropped from the Tropical Weather Outlook after it failed to organize. Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin still expected to merge early next week As of 2:00 p.m. PDT…

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Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

There are several areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Western Pacific today as the global tropics remain active. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary and Tropical Storm Irwin expected to begin Fujiwhara Interaction this weekend. The global models continue to indicate that the larger and stronger Hilary will be the dominant cyclone. In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure has formed from a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and has a chance…

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Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has the potential to develop into the next Atlantic tropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days. The wave is currently accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the short term, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is located…

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Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

This week could get very interesting in the Eastern Pacific as Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin are expected to interact with each other in a rare phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect. Most global models indicate that Hilary, the stronger and larger storm, will be the dominant cyclone and Irwin is likely going to be absorbed into Hilary’s circulation. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Greg has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is expected to become a remnant low during the next day…

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Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

In the Western Pacific, the tropics remain very active with three active tropical cyclones. Typhoon Noru is changing little in intensity as it spins out in the open Western Pacific.  Tropical Storm Kulap is weakening, and is likely to be absorbed by Noru later this week. Tropical Storm Sonca is moving into the Gulf of Tonkin and is expected to make landfall in central Vietnam. Noru likely to spin over the open Pacific for over a week Typhoon Noru weakened…

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Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin form in East Pacific, Noru becomes the first typhoon of 2017

Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin form in East Pacific, Noru becomes the first typhoon of 2017

Two tropical depressions in the Eastern Pacific have strengthened into named tropical storms: Tropical Depression Nine-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Hilary, and Tropical Depression Ten-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Irwin. Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane, while Irwin also has a chance to become a hurricane. In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Noru has strengthened into a typhoon, a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, making it the first typhoon of the 2017 season and…

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A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

Because of the recent active tropics, especially in the Eastern Pacific, I have not been able to release a typical “A Look at the Atlantic” post. I decided to do one today to give an update on the current state of the Atlantic and when we can expect to see our next tropical cyclone form. Sea surface temperatures Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm throughout the Atlantic basin, and are now warm enough to support development in most areas…

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