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Month: May 2019

Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

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Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on schedule, there is a system in the Atlantic basin to watch already. One subtropical storm has already developed in the Atlantic in 2019 (Andrea, earlier this month). A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula has a small chance to develop into the Atlantic’s second named storm of 2019 if it has enough time over water. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system…

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Invest 91E may develop over the far eastern Pacific if it remains offshore

Invest 91E may develop over the far eastern Pacific if it remains offshore

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A broad area of low pressure, re-designated Invest 91E, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the Nicaragua coast. This system should remain nearly stationary and perhaps meander slightly over the next several days, and could develop into a tropical cyclone if it does not move inland into Central America. As of 18:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 91E was located near 11.8°N 87.3°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Invest…

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Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

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Short-lived Subtropical Storm Andrea weakened into a Subtropical Depression on Tuesday morning, and as of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued the last advisory on Andrea, which has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. Andrea has lacked persistent deep convection since early this morning, so it is no longer a subtropical cyclone. Also, we are watching a disturbance in the eastern Pacific once again for possible gradual development. Short-lived Andrea now a post-tropical remnant low As…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: numbers increased due to struggling El Niño

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: numbers increased due to struggling El Niño

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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1. So far, one named storm has formed in the North Atlantic basin in 2019 – Andrea. Now that it is May, the forecast has become clearer, and Cyclonic Fury now expects a more active season than our March forecast. This is primarily because El Niño has not strengthened over the last two months, and climate models have backed off their ENSO forecast. In addition, the equatorial Pacific subsurface has…

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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

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The Atlantic’s first named storm of 2019 – Subtropical Storm Andrea – developed Monday evening southwest of Bermuda. Andrea marks the fifth straight year in which the Atlantic basin has had a named storm develop before the official start of the season (June 1). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance (90L) this afternoon, and found a well-defined circulation. As of 6:30 p.m. EDT Monday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 28.8°N 68.7°W, and was moving northward at…

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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

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The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

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There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

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It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little. As of 12:00 UTC May 16,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

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Today is May 15, the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. No tropical cyclones have developed yet in this basin in 2019; 2017 featured the pre-season Tropical Storm Adrian and 2018 featured the pre-season Tropical Depression One-E. The Eastern and Central Pacific is coming off a record-breaking 2018 season which featured 23 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5 hurricanes, and a record-high 318 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. With a weak El Nino event…

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Area of disturbed weather near Bahamas could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics

Area of disturbed weather near Bahamas could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics

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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins one month from today, but the basin is already showing its first signs of life. A non-tropical trough of low pressure has developed near the Bahamas and is currently disorganized, but conditions may become a bit more favorable for some slight development by late this weekend if it remains offshore the Atlantic coast. If this system develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Andrea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)…

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