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Month: May 2017

Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

At 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E south of Mexico in the East Pacific. Maximum winds were estimated to be 25 knots (30 mph), along with a minimum pressure of 1007 millibars. The cyclone was centered near 13.9°N 97.8°W, with the center located near the center of an area of deep convection. Two-E was moving northeastward at about 3 mph.  The NHC expects TD Two-E to slowly strengthen over the next five…

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Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

Invest 91E has substantially improved in organization since this morning. The system has had persistent deep convection this afternoon, but the convective activity is currently not quite well organized enough for the system to be designated a tropical depression. As of their 5:00 PM PDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center raised the two-day development chances to 70 percent and the five-day probability to 80 percent. 91E is currently a sprawling area of low pressure with a large…

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora made landfall early Tuesday around 7:30 a.m. local time in southeastern Bangladesh. The storm had 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots (75 mph – equivalent to a minimal category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), and 3-minute sustained winds of 60 knots (70 mph), at the time of landfall. The estimated minimum pressure was 978 mbar. Mora was the first Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of 2017 to have 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots or greater, making it the Northern…

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Cyclonic Storm Mora expected to make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, Tropical Depression could form Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week

Cyclonic Storm Mora expected to make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, Tropical Depression could form Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week

Cyclonic Storm Mora has strengthened slightly since yesterday over the Bay of Bengal. As of 12:00 UTC this morning, Mora had 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph), and 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (50 mph). As noted yesterday, moderate wind shear seems to be preventing any rapid intensification of Mora before landfall, as the center of circulation is located along the eastern edge of the deep convection. Mora lacks an eye feature, but has overall become…

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Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02B in the North Indian Ocean has recently been upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Mora, and has continued to become better organized today as it tracks northward through the Bay of Bengal. As of 18:00 UTC this afternoon, 02B had 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 35 knots and 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 40 knots. Just recently, the India Meteorological Department named the system Mora. Mora is the second named storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season….

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Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

Update 5:00 PM EDT: Invest 94B has now developed into Tropical Cyclone 02B. Invest 94B in the Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean is nearly a tropical cyclone. 94B has had persistent deep convection for several hours now, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the circulation of the system was well-defined. The ASCAT pass also showed winds of tropical storm force. 94B is likely to develop into Cyclonic Storm Mora during the next day or two, and could…

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Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Yesterday, Britain-based meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an updated forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted that the 2017 Atlantic season would have near-normal activity overall, with 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 6 (+/- 3) hurricanes and 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 98 (+/- 48). This is an increase from their previous forecast on April 5, in which they predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in…

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NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45%…

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My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

It is not often you see East Pacific hurricane season forecasts, so I decided to make my own. NOAA is likely going to release their East Pacific hurricane season forecast later today, but most other agencies do not release seasonal forecasts for the East Pacific basin. Last season, the East Pacific basin saw an above-average season with 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, despite a weak La Niña – which typically suppresses the East Pacific basin. The…

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