As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season. For the East Pacific basin, NOAA is expecting 14 to 20 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes. Their report calls for a 40% chance of an above-normal season, 40% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is predicting above-normal activity in the Central Pacific as well, forecasting 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to enter the region. Just like the East Pacific basin, NOAA gives the Central Pacific a 40% chance of above-normal activity, a 40% chance of near-normal activity and a 20% chance of below-normal activity.

I somewhat agree with these forecasts, but I think the Atlantic forecast in particular could be a little on the high end. I prefer to keep my numbers at a conservative 13-6-3, based on the fact that El Niño is still a slight possibility. The 2017 season looks unique in that both basins could end up above average – similar to last season. No basin has a strong “advantage” leading into this upcoming season. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I’ll be back for another post tomorrow – my weekly “A Look at the Atlantic” post.