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Month: September 2017

Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

For the first time since the morning of August 23, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic basin, as Lee and Maria have both transitioned into extratropical lows. There is only one disturbance that has a chance to develop in the short term – Invest 99L, which is located near the coast of Northeastern Florida. 99L has become better organized this evening, with thunderstorm activity increasing to the east of the center. As of 00:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 99L…

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Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

With Tropical Storms Lee and Maria expected to both turn extratropical on Saturday, the 37-day streak with an Atlantic tropical cyclone active at all times is in jeopardy. There are two new tropical disturbances that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days (including Invest 99L) – but neither is likely to become a hurricane or a major threat. The first one, Invest 99L, is a weak area of low pressure located just inland over Southern Florida….

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Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

A large area of disturbed weather – designated Invest 99L – has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Florida Straits. This area of disturbed weather has moderate potential to develop into a weak tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 99L was centered near 24.2°N 79.9°W, and was moving slowly northward. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. On Friday, an area of low…

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Maria and Lee expected to become extratropical this weekend, watching a new disturbance for development

Maria and Lee expected to become extratropical this weekend, watching a new disturbance for development

Tropical Storm Maria restrengthened into a minimal hurricane on Wednesday as it turned to the northeast over the subtropical Atlantic. Maria is heading out to sea, and is likely to become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane Lee became the fifth major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday morning when it strengthened into a category 3 hurricane over the open Atlantic, but has since weakened to a category 2 hurricane. Lee, like Maria, is expected to transition…

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Maria expected to remain offshore of North Carolina, though direct impacts are still expected in coastal areas

Maria expected to remain offshore of North Carolina, though direct impacts are still expected in coastal areas

Hurricane Maria is gradually weakening as it moves over cool waters, and is expected to remain offshore of the United States. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 32.3°N 73.1°W, and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 969 mb. The structure of Maria does not resemble a typical hurricane, as the convection is fairly shallow and nearly all of the hurricane force…

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Maria weakens to a category 1 hurricane; Lee becomes the eighth hurricane of the season

Maria weakens to a category 1 hurricane; Lee becomes the eighth hurricane of the season

Hurricane Maria has begun to weaken as it moves over the cold wake left behind by Hurricane Jose, and is now a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Maria was centered near 30.0°N 73.0°W, and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 80 knots (90 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 950 mb. Additional slow weakening is likely as Maria is moving over cooler waters and wind shear…

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Maria likely to pass just east of Outer Banks, regenerated Lee could become a hurricane, Pilar forms in East Pacific

Maria likely to pass just east of Outer Banks, regenerated Lee could become a hurricane, Pilar forms in East Pacific

Hurricane Maria remains a category 3 hurricane over the western Atlantic, and is likely to pass just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Wednesday before likely turning to the east-northeast on Thursday. Even though Maria is not likely to make a direct landfall, direct impacts are still likely along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Maria is not likely to have a significant impact over inland North Carolina, however, unless it takes a farther west track than anticipated….

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Maria restrengthens as it nears Turks and Caicos Islands, Jose now a post-tropical cyclone

Maria restrengthens as it nears Turks and Caicos Islands, Jose now a post-tropical cyclone

Hurricane Maria restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane on Thursday as it developed a new, large eye after moving away from Puerto Rico. Maria is likely at its secondary peak intensity, and a slow weakening trend is likely to begin this weekend as it recurves out into the Atlantic. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 21.0°N 70.2°W and was moving northwestward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 110 knots (125 mph), with an estimated…

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Maria a category 2 hurricane as it moves away from Puerto Rico, Jose beginning to spin down

Maria a category 2 hurricane as it moves away from Puerto Rico, Jose beginning to spin down

Hurricane Maria made landfall early Monday morning around 6:35 a.m. AST near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane. At the time of landfall, Maria’s maximum sustained winds were estimated at 135 knots (155 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 917 mb. Maria is the strongest hurricane to strike Puerto Rico since a hurricane in 1928. Maria weakened considerably over landfall, and is now a high-end category 2 hurricane. Maria could restrengthen a little during the next…

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Maria the tenth-deepest Atlantic hurricane on record; Jose weakens to a tropical storm

Maria the tenth-deepest Atlantic hurricane on record; Jose weakens to a tropical storm

Hurricane Maria became the tenth-strongest Atlantic hurricane by minimum central pressure on Tuesday evening, when its central pressure fell to 909 mb. This makes Maria the strongest Atlantic hurricane by pressure since Dean in 2007, and the strongest of the season (despite Irma having stronger maximum sustained winds of 185 mph). Maria is likely to make landfall in Eastern Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, unless some slight weakening takes place before landfall. Residents of Puerto Rico…

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