Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

It may be December and the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is over five months away, but it is not too early to begin to speculate on what the next hurricane season will be like. The Atlantic basin featured hyperactive activity in 2017, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, along with a very high Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 226 units. The Atlantic’s 2017 season came after an also active but less intense 2016 season, which…

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Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

November 30 marks the official end of the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. After seven months of activity, beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene in April and ending with Tropical Storm Rina in November, it is finally over. While the Eastern Pacific had an active, but fairly uneventful season, the Atlantic recorded its fifth most active season in terms of named storms and seventh most active season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The season will generally be most…

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Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

It may be Veterans Day, but the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons still may not be over just yet. A trough of low pressure located southwest of the Azores – recently designated Invest 96L – has a chance to develop some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves northeastward. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 94E is becoming better organized quickly this afternoon and could become a tropical depression over the next couple days as it moves…

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Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

Tropical Storm Rina transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday morning, with cold air being wrapped into its circulation. The post-tropical remnants of Rina should dissipate tomorrow or Saturday. The dissipation of Rina could mark the end of the extremely active and destructive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. But will it? Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until November 30, and it’s not out of the question to see development during the month of December. While the majority of Atlantic hurricane…

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Rina strengthens a little more – expected to turn post-tropical Wednesday night or Thursday morning

Rina strengthens a little more – expected to turn post-tropical Wednesday night or Thursday morning

Tropical Storm Rina has strengthened a little more today as it moves northward into the cool waters of the Northern Atlantic. Rina has begun to acquire some subtropical characteristics, with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and little deep convection near the center. However, Rina maintains a warm core so it has not been declared a post-tropical cyclone yet. Regardless, Rina should transition into an extratropical cyclone late tonight or early Thursday as it loses all deep convection and becomes embedded in…

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Tropical Storm Rina strengthening over the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Rina strengthening over the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Rina, the seventeenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, is gradually gaining strength over the central subtropical Atlantic. As of 10:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, Rina was centered near 35.4°N 48.5°W, and was moving northward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Rina is likely to strengthen a little more on Wednesday, partially aided by baroclinic forcing and marginally favorable conditions. Rina should then transition…

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Non-threatening Tropical Depression Nineteen forms over the Open Atlantic

Non-threatening Tropical Depression Nineteen forms over the Open Atlantic

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet. A non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic acquired a well-defined circulation and persistent deep convection, resulting in the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen early this morning. The depression is no threat to land, and is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rina later today or on Tuesday as it moves north-northeastward through a marginally favorable environment. If Nineteen does become named Rina, 2017 will…

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Philippe dissipates, two non-threatening disturbances could develop

Philippe dissipates, two non-threatening disturbances could develop

The short life of Tropical Storm Philippe came to an end on Sunday afternoon, as strong shear and a merger with a cold front has caused Philippe’s well-defined circulation to lose definition to the point where it can longer be considered a tropical cyclone. After Philippe, there are two non-threatening disturbances – one in the Atlantic and one in the Eastern Pacific – that could develop into a tropical cyclone as we get into November, the final month of the…

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Poorly organized Philippe forms near Cuba, Selma dissipates

Poorly organized Philippe forms near Cuba, Selma dissipates

On Saturday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen, and has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Philippe – the sixteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Philippe is a poorly organized tropical storm, and does not have a structure very typical of one. Philippe is now expected to make landfall in Southwestern Florida early Sunday morning, but because of the unusual nature of the storm, Tropical Storm Warnings have not been issued for any…

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PTC 18 expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Selma to bring heavy rains to Central America

PTC 18 expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Selma to bring heavy rains to Central America

The tropical disturbance over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, previously known as Invest 93L, has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. Eighteen is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe on Saturday, and is expected to make landfall in western Cuba as a tropical storm. PTC Eighteen poised to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Warnings issued for parts of Cuba and the Bahamas As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was centered near 18.2°N 84.4°W, and was…

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