CYCLONIC FURY

A history of May tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

May 20, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 4 comments

While not officially part of Atlantic hurricane season, May has seen plenty of tropical cyclones over the years. According to NOAA, the month of May has seen a total of 22 tropical storms and four hurricanes since reliable records began in 1851, making it the most active month outside of the official seasonal bounds of June 1 to November 30. Based on these data, on average, an Atlantic tropical cyclone forms in May about once every ten years. This total…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

May 19, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 2 comments

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are slowly warming up, while wind shear is slowly decreasing. The Atlantic basin is not quite ready for tropical cyclones yet, but should be fairly soon. Each Friday when a storm is not active, I will do a detailed analysis of the Atlantic, including sea surface temperatures and anomalies, wind shear, and convective activity. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic continue to slowly warm up, with the 26°C isotherm now stretching…

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My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

May 18, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

On Wednesday, May 10, I was fortunate enough to get a chance to visit the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Awareness Tour at Raleigh-Durham International Airport. I had also attended this event several years ago, but I do not remember much about it. However, unlike last time, this time I was able to see the WC-130J AF309 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Last season I began to closely monitor the Air Force reconnaissance flights to get a better idea of the rate of…

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Tropical Atlantic, East Pacific likely to be quiet for a while

May 17, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The tropics in the Atlantic and East Pacific are likely to remain quiet for the next week or two. Don’t expect the formation of Bret or Beatriz in the near future. Last week, a somewhat favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pattern allowed Tropical Storm Adrian to spin up in the East Pacific. However, the favorable MJO has moved out of the Western Hemisphere, and is heading towards the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. A favorable MJO pattern is characterized by moist, rising…

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ECMWF May climate forecast update is in, still showing El Niño but shows a less hostile tropical Atlantic than previous runs

May 16, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Each month, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) runs a climate model to predict temperature and rainfall trends throughout the world. This model also is used to predict sea surface temperature, and this helps meteorologists predict the upcoming hurricane season. The May update to the ECMWF climate model was released to the public today. It shows a more favorable Atlantic for the peak season period of August/September/October, with near-normal rainfall in the both the Atlantic Main Development…

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My 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

May 15, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Welcome to Cyclonic Fury’s Daily Blog! From now until the end of November, I will add a blog post nearly every day about the latest news in tropical weather. Today is May 15 – and the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in only 17 days. Tropical cyclones form primarily in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30 (the dates that are officially considered Atlantic hurricane season), however, they can form before or after these dates, as evidenced by Tropical…

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2017 East Pacific hurricane season names

May 14, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Much like in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) names tropical storms and hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean east of 140°W. The East Pacific hurricane season officially begins tomorrow, and the NHC will begin issuing routine Tropical Weather Outlooks through November 30 starting tomorrow morning. The first East Pacific named storm – Adrian – has already formed; last week it became the earliest named storm on record to form in the East Pacific proper. However, Adrian quickly dissipated…

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2017 Atlantic hurricane season names

May 13, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Every year, the National Hurricane Center names tropical storms and hurricanes, based on a list of names created by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). There are 6 naming lists that recycle every 6 years. Names of unusually destructive tropical storms and hurricanes may be retired the following spring. The names that will be used for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season are: Arlene (already used) Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina…

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Welcome to Cyclonic Fury!

May 12, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Welcome to Cyclonic Fury! This new blog will cover tropical cyclones worldwide, with an emphasis on the Atlantic basin in particular. The blog will launch with semi-daily posts beginning on May 15 about the latest updates on global tropical cyclone activity.