The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in just over two months, on June 1. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, but featured three Category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto and Melissa) – the second-most on record. Melissa, tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by wind speed (190 mph), caused devastating damage to Jamaica. As a result, the name Melissa was retired early this month by the World Meteorological Organization, and replaced with Molly for the 2031 season. Despite the three Category 5 hurricanes, the season had lengthy lulls in activity, including no activity in the first half of September for the first time since 1992. Only one hurricane formed before September 20.

Since 2016, there has been a distinct lack of quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons. Every season during that time frame has had at least 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and at least 90 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). With a potentially strong El Niño likely to develop later this year, there is a good chance that changes this year and the Atlantic basin sees its first truly quiet season since 2015.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic basin has been in an ongoing era of high hurricane activity since 1995, characterized by the positive “warm” phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The +AMO phase is typically characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the deep tropical Atlantic and far northern Atlantic. At the moment, the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern does not resemble the typical +AMO, with near-average sea surface temperatures in the MDR and significantly warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the western subtropical Atlantic. In fact, when adjusted to the global mean anomaly, the Atlantic pattern resembles a -AMO look, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the MDR well below the global mean anomaly. Overall, this is not a particularly favorable look for Atlantic hurricane activity should it persist, as the warmer than normal western subtropical Atlantic could cause subsidence issues over the deep tropical Atlantic where hurricanes most commonly form. Three years ago, in 2023, despite a fairly strong El Nino, the Atlantic basin was able to reach above-average activity in large part due to record-warm sea surface temperatures over the deep tropical Atlantic. With models showing a continued positive NAO phase over the coming weeks, significant MDR warming prior to the season is not likely. Since that appears unlikely that we will see significant MDR warming before the season, it is not likely that the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern will be able to significantly negate effects of the expected El Niño.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

A lengthy double-dip La Niña event that began in mid-2024 is nearing its end, and it is increasingly likely we will see a transition to El Niño by the Northern Hemisphere summer. The latest weekly Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly was -0.4°C, which is into the ENSO-neutral threshold. The Nino 1+2 and Nino 4 regions have recently warmed to positive levels. The 90-day averaged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was around +9, consistent with a La Nina background state. However, in the last week, we have seen daily SOI values turn negative, reflective of a base state change occurring over the equatorial Pacific. Since December, we have seen three downwelling Kelvin Waves develop over the western Pacific, which has resulted in significant subsurface warming over the equatorial Pacific, often a harbinger of El Niño. With an ongoing westerly wind burst that is likely to lead to further warming in the ENSO regions, it is likely that the NOAA CPC will officially end the La Nina advisory in their April update. It should be noted that beginning this year, NOAA has switched to the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), which is adjusted to the global mean anomaly. As a result, Niño 3.4 anomalies are going to appear cooler than they did in past years, and it may be more difficult to reach the strong or very strong El Niño thresholds. Regardless, development of a significant El Niño is likely. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives an 80% chance of El Nino development (Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of at least +0.5°C) by the August-September-October (ASO) trimonthly period. In addition, CPC gives a 33% chance of a “strong” (1.5°C+) and a 13% chance of a “very strong” (2.0°C+) El Nino by the October-November-December (OND) trimonthly period. El Niño events typically peak in late fall or early winter in the northern hemisphere, and result in a significant increase in vertical wind shear over the deep tropical Atlantic (especially the Caribbean Sea, which often has little to no activity during significant El Niño events). Without Atlantic warmth to counter the effects of El Niño, it is likely that El Niño will significantly suppress the activity in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Aside from the anomalous 2023 (that will likely be revised down in strength with RONI), strong El Niño events almost always result in below-average hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin. Therefore, that is the primary reason why Cyclonic Fury is projecting the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be the least active since 2015.

West African Monsoon & Projected Precipitation

A stronger than normal West African Monsoon (WAM) had boosted the activity of most Atlantic hurricane seasons from the late 2010s into the early 2020s. However, in 2025, western Africa was the driest it had been in more than a decade, which likely suppressed tropical cyclogenesis with fewer disturbances. Despite La Niña, only 13 named storms formed in 2025, which was the fewest since 2015 and below the 1991-2020 average. El Niño events typically result in anomalous sinking over the eastern Atlantic and Africa, which could lead to Africa being drier again this season. However, the most recent NMME forecast suite shows a narrow band of heightened chances of above-normal precipitation over the Sahel region for the ASO trimonthly period. If western Africa is as dry as it was in 2025, the chance of a very quiet season would increase; if west Africa returns to the above-normal precipitation era we saw for much of the last decade, it is possible that the upper bounds of the forecast could be reached. The NMME forecast also shows heightened chances of well-below normal precipitation over the entire tropical Atlantic, with above-normal precipitation likely over the western subtropical Atlantic. This is consistent with an El Niño pattern, where the bulk of Atlantic hurricane activity is often concentrated in the subtropics.

CYCLONIC FURY’S preliminary 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

• 10-14 named storms (1991-2020 average: 14.4)
• 3-6 hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 7.2)
• 1-3 major hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 3.2)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy 70 units (+/- 30) (1991-2020 average: 122.1)

Cyclonic Fury also gives the following probabilities of activity:

• Hyperactive season: 5% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160 or greater) – This scenario is very unlikely, and would likely only be possible if El Niño does not develop and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures anomalously warm significantly.
• Above normal season: 10% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 126-159) – This scenario is unlikely, and would likely only be possible if El Niño remains very weak, Atlantic sea surface temperatures warm, and the Atlantic takes full advantage of the favorable subtropics.
• Near normal season: 35% (Does not fall into the Below Normal, Above Normal or Hyperactive criteria) – This could occur if the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures warm somewhat, El Niño does not get as strong as expected, or if the Atlantic basin takes advantage of a favorable subtropics.
• Below normal season: 50% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73 or less) – This is the most likely scenario. With a moderate-to-strong El Niño likely to develop and the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern not particularly conducive, a below-normal season is likely.

This is the least active forecast I have published on Cyclonic Fury, since I began doing early-spring preliminary forecasts in 2018. This is the ninth straight year Cyclonic Fury has issued a pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecast, with the forecast typically being released in late March or early April. In 2018, in our March forecast, Cyclonic Fury predicted 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 125 units. This forecast verified quite well, as 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes formed, with an ACE index of 133. In 2019, our March forecast was much less accurate, as Cyclonic Fury predicted 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 80. Actual activity was significantly higher, as El Niño dissipated sooner than expected, with 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 132. In 2020, our March forecast correctly anticipated potential for an active season, as we predicted 13-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes with an ACE index of 140 units. However, our forecast was too low in every category since record-breaking activity occurred. In 2021, our March forecast once again correctly anticipated an above-average hurricane season, predicting 14-19 named storms (actual: 21), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 7) and 2-4 major hurricanes (actual: 4), and an ACE index of 135 units (actual: 146). Our forecast was a bit too low in named storms and ACE, but overall, the forecast was fairly accurate. In 2022, our March forecast overestimated the actual activity, predicting 15-20 named storms (actual: 14), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 8), 3-5 major hurricanes (actual: 2), and an ACE index of 130 units (actual: 95). The near-average activity was significantly less than the above-average season that was anticipated. In 2023, our April forecast significantly underestimated the actual activity, predicting 11-14 named storms (actual: 20), 4-6 hurricanes (actual: 7), 1-3 major hurricanes (actual: 3), and an ACE index of 75 units (actual: 146). The forecast bust is attributed to the tropical Atlantic undergoing significant warming to record-warm levels prior to the start of the season, which significantly enhanced hurricane activity in 2023 beyond normal levels associated with El Niño. In 2024, our March forecast correctly anticipated a very active season, predicting 17-24 named storms (actual: 18), 8-12 hurricanes (actual: 11), 4-7 major hurricanes (actual: 5), and an ACE index of 180 units (actual: 162). In 2025, our April forecast correctly anticipated a slightly above average season, predicting 13-17 named storms (actual: 13), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 5), 2-4 major hurricanes (actual: 4), and an ACE index of 130 units (actual: 131).

It should be stressed that pre-season hurricane forecasts are used for predicting overall activity in the Atlantic basin, not land threats, and that it is impossible at this extended range to determine what areas are at higher risk for hurricane impacts. Regardless, everyone in a hurricane-prone area should have a hurricane plan ready to go by the start of the season.