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Month: July 2018

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

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Cyclonic Fury has released its July 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast update, and we now anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will see activity slightly below the long-term average. Our final forecast anticipates a total of 10-13 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, along with 5-7 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 80 (+/- 20) units. This forecast includes the three systems that have already formed in the Atlantic…

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Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

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Two areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific basin are becoming better organized today and are close to developing into tropical depressions. The eastern Pacific has not yet seen a new tropical cyclone form this July, which is extremely unusual. This is somewhat surprising for what was anticipated to be a very active or even possibly hyperactive season by experts, since July is normally one of the most active months in the eastern Pacific. Behind 91E and 92E, another…

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A line of Pacific disturbances that pose no land threat

A line of Pacific disturbances that pose no land threat

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There continues to be no new tropical cyclones active in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. However, there are three areas of disturbed weather currently being monitored for development in the Eastern Pacific and one in the Central Pacific. The easternmost disturbance, which has not yet formed, is expected to develop into a low pressure system by early next week. The UKMET and ECMWF models both develop this system into a tropical depression by late Wednesday as it moves…

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Two non-threatening, low-chance disturbances in the Pacific

Two non-threatening, low-chance disturbances in the Pacific

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Overall, the tropics are quiet today in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. There are, however, two low-chance disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific, but neither poses any threat to land. The first of the two disturbances, Invest 91C over the central Pacific, has become less organized since yesterday. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91C was located near 14.2°N 146.9°W, and was moving generally westward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of…

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Beryl hanging on as a subtropical storm, 99E could develop over the east-central Pacific

Beryl hanging on as a subtropical storm, 99E could develop over the east-central Pacific

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Subtropical Storm Beryl is barely hanging on as a subtropical cyclone this morning, with a small area of deep convection to the southeast of the center. However, Beryl should become a remnant low tonight or on Monday morning, since it is about to move away from the Gulf Stream in about 12 hours. Beryl’s remnants may reach Newfoundland on Tuesday, but they are likely to be very weak by that time and minimal impact is anticipated. In the eastern Pacific,…

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Beryl regenerates into a subtropical storm over the western Atlantic

Beryl regenerates into a subtropical storm over the western Atlantic

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The strange life of once Hurricane Beryl, which was a tiny hurricane in the deep Atlantic tropics last week, continues. The low pressure system associated with the remnants of Beryl have regenerated into a subtropical storm and advisories have been initiated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Beryl is not likely to strengthen much, if at all, and should degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by Monday. As of 1:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Subtropical Storm Beryl was centered near 36.4°N…

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Beryl’s remnants still may regenerate this weekend

Beryl’s remnants still may regenerate this weekend

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The remnants of Hurricane Beryl have become better organized today and still have a low chance to regenerate into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are only marginal for development, with wind shear moderate to strong and sea surface temperatures are expected to cool by Sunday. As of 18:00 UTC Friday, the remnants of Beryl were located near 34.0°N 68.4°W, and were moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25…

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Category 2 Chris begins to weaken, Beryl still could regenerate near Bermuda

Category 2 Chris begins to weaken, Beryl still could regenerate near Bermuda

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Category 2 Hurricane Chris, which reached its peak intensity early this morning with maximum sustained winds of 90 knots (105 mph) and a minimum pressure of 970 mb, has begun to weaken today as it moves northeastward away from the United States. Chris is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane to form in July since Dolly in 2008. In the western Atlantic, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl remain poorly organized, but they could regenerate west of Bermuda late this week or…

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Chris becomes the second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl still could regenerate

Chris becomes the second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl still could regenerate

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Tropical Storm Chris over the western Atlantic quickly developed a well-defined eye this morning, and strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season this afternoon. Chris is likely to strengthen some more over the next 24 hours or so before it moves over very cool waters late tomorrow or early Thursday. Chris becomes the second Atlantic hurricane of 2018 As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Chris was centered near 33.7°N 72.4°W, and was moving northeastward at…

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Chris near hurricane strength, Beryl could regenerate north of the Bahamas

Chris near hurricane strength, Beryl could regenerate north of the Bahamas

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After struggling with dry air and cold water upwelling earlier today, Tropical Storm Chris has resumed strengthening over the western Atlantic. Chris is likely to intensify into a hurricane tonight or tomorrow before it accelerates to the northeast. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Chris was centered near 32.2°N 74.4°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 996 mb. Chris is currently just below the threshold of…

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