Tropical Storm Chris over the western Atlantic quickly developed a well-defined eye this morning, and strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season this afternoon. Chris is likely to strengthen some more over the next 24 hours or so before it moves over very cool waters late tomorrow or early Thursday.

Chris becomes the second Atlantic hurricane of 2018

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Chris was centered near 33.7°N 72.4°W, and was moving northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 980 mb. Chris has a classic satellite appearance of a hurricane, with a well-defined eye surrounded by a ring of moderate to deep convection. Chris could strengthen a little more as it remains in a low-shear, warm-water environment, and Chris is likely to become a Category 2 hurricane early tomorrow morning. I will not completely rule out the possibility that Chris becomes a major Category 3 hurricane. However, in about 36 hours or so, Chris is likely to begin to quickly weaken as sea surface temperatures drop quickly when the hurricane moves north of the Gulf Stream. Chris should complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The extratropical remnants of Chris are likely to brush eastern Newfoundland, and will likely bring heavy rainfall and storm force winds.

Chris is now the strongest storm so far of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Chris is also the second Atlantic hurricane to form this July, and the second in 2018 overall. This makes 2018 the first season to have two July hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 2008. Chris is over a month and a half ahead of schedule for the average second Atlantic hurricane, which forms on average on August 28. While one might think two hurricanes this early would be an indicator for an active season, it should be noted that in 1997, the Atlantic basin saw two hurricanes in the month of July and only one for the rest of the season! However, 1997 was a Super El Niño year and I do not expect the rest of the season to be as quiet as 1997. It should also be noted that early activity in the subtropical Atlantic does not have a strong correlation with an active season either.

Chris is now the strongest storm so far of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Chris is also the second Atlantic hurricane to form this July, and the second in 2018 overall. This makes 2018 the first season to have two July hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 2008. Chris is over a month and a half ahead of schedule for the average second Atlantic hurricane, which forms on average on August 28. While one might think two hurricanes this early would be an indicator for an active season, it should be noted that in 1997, the Atlantic basin saw two hurricanes in the month of July and only one for the rest of the season! However, 1997 was a Super El Niño year and I do not expect the rest of the season to be as quiet as 1997. It should also be noted that early activity in the subtropical Atlantic does not have a strong correlation with an active season either.

Beryl may regenerate north of the Bahamas late this week

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, while currently poorly organized northwest of Hispaniola, could gradually reorganize over the next few days as they move northwestward and then northward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives Beryl’s remnants a 20 percent chance of regeneration within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. Although global models are not particularly aggressive with regeneration, some slight redevelopment is possible. Wind shear is expected to drop to below 10 knots late tomorrow and remain low for 48 hours or so. At the same time, Beryl’s remnants will be over sea surface temperatures of about 27-28°C (80.6-82.4°F). Dry mid-level air (relative humidity values of less than 50 percent) may limit redevelopment. We will continue to watch the remnants of Beryl for potential redevelopment.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.