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Month: July 2019

Erick gradually weakening, Flossie unexpectedly weakens to a tropical storm due to shear, tropical wave could develop east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week

Erick gradually weakening, Flossie unexpectedly weakens to a tropical storm due to shear, tropical wave could develop east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week

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Hurricanes Erick and Flossie over the eastern Pacific have both weakened since yesterday, with Flossie weakening to a tropical storm due to strong westerly shear. Erick should remain south of the Hawaiian Islands as it gradually weakens. Flossie could pass close to the islands in about 6 days or so, but marginal sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear should weaken Flossie as it approaches from the east. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave has a strong chance to develop…

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Erick rapidly intensifies to Category 4, Flossie becomes a hurricane, two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic

Erick rapidly intensifies to Category 4, Flossie becomes a hurricane, two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic

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The tropics are heating up in both the Atlantic and Pacific, with multiple systems to watch in both basins. Hurricanes Erick and Flossie are currently active over the Pacific, and two tropical waves (including Invest 95L) over the tropical Atlantic warrant monitoring. Erick rapidly intensifies to a Category 4 hurricane, but likely to weaken as it remains south of the Hawaiian Islands Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into the second major hurricane of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season. As of…

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Cyclonic Fury’s July 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly above average activity anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s July 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly above average activity anticipated

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The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching. So far, the Atlantic basin has seen three tropical depressions and two named storms, including one minimal hurricane (Barry). Barry was the first July hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Arthur in 2014. Atlantic basin activity has been close to normal, though Barry reached hurricane strength about three weeks prior to the average date of the first hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Unlike the past two seasons,…

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TS Erick forms over the eastern Pacific, Hawaii threat uncertain

TS Erick forms over the eastern Pacific, Hawaii threat uncertain

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Update 2:15 p.m. PDT: TD Six-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erick by the NHC. Tropical Depression Six-E over the eastern Pacific is close to intensifying into a tropical storm. As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Six-E was centered near 11.6°N 125.3°W, and was moving westward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. A recently-arrived ASCAT-C pass suggests Six-E is close to…

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TD Three forms over the Bahamas, significant intensification not expected, TD Five-E no threat

TD Three forms over the Bahamas, significant intensification not expected, TD Five-E no threat

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The North Atlantic’s third tropical depression developed Monday afternoon, but is not expected to become a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday. TD Three is likely to be short-lived, as it is expected to be absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Depression Three was centered near 25.6°N 78.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25…

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Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

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Hurricane Barry made landfall in central Louisiana today, near the Marsh Island area. The estimated intensity was 65 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 993 mb. However, the exact time and location of landfall has not yet been officially determined due to Barry’s disorganized structure. Barry has since weakened to a tropical storm, and should continue to weaken over the next few days. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Barry was centered near…

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, a hurricane threat to the northern Gulf Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, a hurricane threat to the northern Gulf Coast

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wednesday morning. Although Two is not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the potential to bring tropical storm conditions to southeastern Louisiana within 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Mouth…

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Invest 92L expected to develop by Thursday, may pose wind and surge risk for Louisiana

Invest 92L expected to develop by Thursday, may pose wind and surge risk for Louisiana

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Invest 92L has emerged over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and is likely to slowly organize into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, 92L should gradually become better organized over the next few days. Global models have come into better agreement, with most of the recent models predicting that 92L will be a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane making landfall somewhere in Louisiana on Saturday. However,…

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Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

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It is looking increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone will form over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. A broad trough of low pressure, currently centered over central Georgia, is expected to drift southwestward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. At that time, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop by Friday. This system has been designated Invest 92L while still over land, which is not…

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Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

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A trough of low pressure located over northern Georgia is expected to drift southward into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a surface low pressure area could lead to the development of the North Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone of 2019. If a tropical cyclone does develop, it remains uncertain which path it will take, with the GFS and CMC models favoring more of an eastward solution and the ECMWF model favoring more of a westward solution. The…

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