TD Three forms over the Bahamas, significant intensification not expected, TD Five-E no threat
The North Atlantic’s third tropical depression developed Monday afternoon, but is not expected to become a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday. TD Three is likely to be short-lived, as it is expected to be absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday.
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Depression Three was centered near 25.6°N 78.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1013 mb. Three was likely upgraded based on an ASCAT pass this morning which suggested the low-level circulation had become better defined. Convection increased during the morning and early afternoon, but has since decreased during the last few hours. It is interesting that Three developed without global model support.
Although shear is expected to remain low and sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warm for the next 24 hours or so, both the statistical and global models do not show much intensification. It is unlikely, but not out of the question, that TD Three becomes Tropical Storm Chantal. The primary threat with Three is rainfall along the southeastern U.S. coast, but rainfall totals will likely not be particularly high since most of the convection is east of the center. The National Hurricane Center predicts TD Three to dissipate in about 48 hours, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it dissipated sooner than that. No watches and warnings are currently in effect with TD Three.
TD Five-E no threat in the Eastern Pacific
There is also an active tropical depression in the eastern Pacific, TD Five-E. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Five-E was centered near 16.7°N 116.6°W, and was moving north-northwestward at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Five-E is likely to briefly intensify into Tropical Storm Dalilia on Tuesday before dissipation in about 48 hours or so. Five-E is no threat to any land areas.