It is looking increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone will form over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. A broad trough of low pressure, currently centered over central Georgia, is expected to drift southwestward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. At that time, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop by Friday. This system has been designated Invest 92L while still over land, which is not something seen very often.

As of 18:00 UTC Monday, Invest 92L was centered near 32.6°N 83.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were 15 knots (15 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. Since 92L is over land, it currently does not show any signs of organization, with minimal convective activity. However, once this system moves into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will likely spawn a surface low pressure area on Wednesday. With very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30°C (86°F), as well as wind shear expected to be light-to-moderate, it is likely we will see a tropical depression form by Thursday as 92L moves westward over the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center gives 92L a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance within five days. If 92L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Barry.

The model guidance has come into better agreement from yesterday, with the GFS, CMC and UKMET models all shifting west to come more in line with the ECMWF. The UKMET model is the most aggressive, bringing a 974-mb hurricane into eastern Louisiana Friday morning. The ECMWF model is also bullish, showing a 982-mb hurricane making landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border Saturday evening. The GFS model is much weaker, showing a minimal, sheared tropical storm making landfall in eastern Texas Saturday afternoon. The intensity of 92L, if development occurs, remains highly uncertain. A low-end hurricane is definitely possible if 92L is able to develop a small core and intensify quickly, since sea surface temperatures are very warm. On the other hand, it’s also possible 92L remains highly sheared and unable to develop significantly. Interests from the Florida Panhandle all the way west to southeastern Texas should monitor the progress of 92L closely, as the track for 92L remains uncertain. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be a significant threat along the Northern Gulf Coast of the United States.