A trough of low pressure located over northern Georgia is expected to drift southward into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a surface low pressure area could lead to the development of the North Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone of 2019. If a tropical cyclone does develop, it remains uncertain which path it will take, with the GFS and CMC models favoring more of an eastward solution and the ECMWF model favoring more of a westward solution.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The trough is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, when a surface low pressure area will likely form. Models have trended to more time over water, which has resulted in an increase in development chances. The ECMWF model remains the most aggressive and westernmost model run, bringing a 993-mb tropical storm to the coast of central Louisiana Friday night. The UKMET model has trended stronger today, but is east of the ECMWF, showing a 991-mb tropical storm south of the Florida Panhandle in six days. The GFS model remains the weakest, showing a broad, disorganized low pressure system moving westward along the Alabama-Mississippi coast with no significant development. Because this disturbance may get caught in a “col” region with a ridge to the northwest and a trough to the northeast, the future track of this system remains highly uncertain. If a closed circulation develops, we should gain more clarity in the track forecast. Interests along the coast of eastern Texas all the way to the Big Bend region of Florida should monitor this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be a threat with this system throughout the southeastern United States, especially along the Northeastern Gulf Coast.