Subtropical Storm Beryl is barely hanging on as a subtropical cyclone this morning, with a small area of deep convection to the southeast of the center. However, Beryl should become a remnant low tonight or on Monday morning, since it is about to move away from the Gulf Stream in about 12 hours. Beryl’s remnants may reach Newfoundland on Tuesday, but they are likely to be very weak by that time and minimal impact is anticipated. In the eastern Pacific, Invest 99E may develop as it approaches or enters the central Pacific basin, but is unlikely to pose a threat to land.

Beryl hanging on, but likely to become a remnant low early Monday

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Subtropical Storm Beryl was centered near 38.1°N 64.7°W, and was moving east-northeast at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. Beryl has become less organized since yesterday, with the remaining convection limited to a small area southeast of the center. The cyclone is currently in a marginally favorable environment, with wind shear about 20 knots and sea surface temperatures about 25-26°C (77-78°F). Beryl will likely remain a subtropical cyclone for at least the next twelve hours while its center remains over the lukewarm Gulf Stream. On Monday morning, Beryl will be moving over much cooler waters, and this should cause the remaining deep convection to dissipate. The remnants of Beryl are likely to reach Newfoundland on Tuesday afternoon, but will probably be very weak by that time with no convection.

99E may develop well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands

The unusual early July lull over the eastern Pacific basin may be coming to an end soon. An area of low pressure about 1500 miles east-southeast of Hawaii has developed. As of 12:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 99E was located near 12.7°N 132.5°W, and was moving westward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, with wind shear light to moderate, and sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above 26°C (78.8°F) for the next five days. However, mid-level relative humidity values are expected to drop to below 50 percent in about 72 hours, and this may slow development. The GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models all showed some slight development of this system, but most kept the system weak. If 99E develops into a tropical storm east of 140°W, it will be named Gilma; if it develops into a tropical storm west of 140°W, it will be named Walaka. 99E should remain well south of the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 99E a 40 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance within five days.