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Category: Seasonal Forecasts

Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: exceptionally conducive setup could lead to very active season

Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: exceptionally conducive setup could lead to very active season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, just slightly over two months away. As the start of the season draws closer, confidence increases in forecasting the upcoming hurricane season. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished with above-average activity despite a strong El Nino, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. However, it was the least destructive season since 2014, and no names were retired for the first time since that year. It appears…

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Cyclonic Fury’s June 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: a battle between El Niño and a very warm Atlantic makes this forecast highly uncertain

Cyclonic Fury’s June 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: a battle between El Niño and a very warm Atlantic makes this forecast highly uncertain

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially began last Thursday, with Tropical Storm Arlene forming right as the season started (it was actually not the first classifiable system of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January). As we get closer to the peak of the season, usually the upcoming hurricane season becomes easier to forecast. However, 2023 is shaping up to be quite unusual, and is quite possibly the most challenging June forecast I’ve had to write. With…

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Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast: Quieter season expected due to potential El Niño

Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast: Quieter season expected due to potential El Niño

In just over two months, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will begin. The 2022 season was somewhat quieter than recent seasons, but still was quite impactful. Since 2016, the Atlantic basin has had at least 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes each year, with not one below-average season during this timeframe. There is an increasing chance that streak could end this year as El Niño chances appear to be increasing for this summer and fall. El Niño…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: potentially well-above average season anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: potentially well-above average season anticipated

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow. For the first time since 2014, it appears as if we will not see a named storm form prior to the official start of the season. Regardless, environmental conditions appear conducive for the seventh straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a persistent La Nina in place and a continuation of an ongoing active era of Atlantic hurricane activity. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Currently, the overall sea surface temperature anomaly pattern appears favorable…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Seventh straight above-average season likely

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Seventh straight above-average season likely

The official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is just over two months away, and the past seven seasons have had at least one named storm prior to June. As the season draws closer, there is increasing confidence that the Atlantic could be headed for its seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. El Niño appears very unlikely to develop, and the Atlantic remains in an active era of hurricane activity that began in 1995. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Pattern The…

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Cyclonic Fury’s final 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Very active season expected, but less active than 2020

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Very active season expected, but less active than 2020

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a very fast start, with Tropical Storm Ana forming in May, Tropical Storms Bill, Claudette and Danny in June, and Hurricane Elsa in early July. Elsa was the earliest hurricane to form in the Atlantic deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles of the satellite era, and passed near Barbados as a hurricane. Elsa made several landfalls along its path through the Caribbean, and eventually made landfall in northwestern Florida as a…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Above-normal season expected, but less active than 2020

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Above-normal season expected, but less active than 2020

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins a week from today, June 1. However, we have already seen one named storm form: Tropical Storm Ana, which formed northeast of Bermuda on Saturday and became a remnant low late Sunday night. Ana’s formation marked the seventh straight year with a pre-season named storm in the Atlantic basin. While tropical cyclogenesis appears unlikely for at least the next 7-10 days in the Atlantic basin, Cyclonic Fury is forecasting yet another above-average Atlantic…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Less active season than last year expected, but quiet season unlikely

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Less active season than last year expected, but quiet season unlikely

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of named storms, featuring a record-breaking 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes pending remaining reanalysis. The season exhausted the conventional naming list, requiring usage of the Greek Alphabet for the second time. Since two Greek Alphabet names were retired, Eta and Iota, they could not be replaced in the current system. The names Dorian from 2019 and Laura from 2020 were…

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Cyclonic Fury’s final 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially hyperactive season predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially hyperactive season predicted

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a historic start. Nine named storms have formed so far, including two hurricanes (Hanna and Isaias). Nine named storms is the most on record through this date, surpassing the 2005 season, which had the most named storms on record (28). However, Accumulated Cyclone Energy is much lower than 2005, since most of the storms have been weak and short-lived and only two have reached hurricane strength. It should be stressed, though,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1, but the Atlantic has already seen one tropical storm form – Arthur. Arthur formed off the United States East Coast on May 16 and passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on May 18, though overall effects were minimal. Our confidence has increased since late March that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will probably more active than normal, since the equatorial Pacific has cooled to below-normal levels,…

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