Tomorrow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their official 2017 forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. This forecast is usually the most anticipated one of the year. Last year, NOAA predicted in late May that the Atlantic would see 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast verified quite well at the upper end of the range, with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season seeing 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. I expect NOAA to once again predict a near-average season with a large range of activity. This is due to the wide range of possibilities that remain with this season, and predicting a near-average season is likely the safest bet.

In addition, British meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is expected to release an updated 2017 Atlantic hurricane outlook on Friday.  Back in early April, they predicted slightly below average activity 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, but based on recent trends, I think they will raise these numbers to at least near average activity. In addition, Colorado State University (CSU) releases their updated forecast on June 1, the official start of Atlantic hurricane season. They also predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in early April. I expect them to also raise their forecast based on models backing away from El Nino and the tropical Atlantic being very warm.

The tropics continue to remain quiet with little activity expected for the next week or two. I will be back tomorrow with my detailed seasonal forecast for the 2017 East Pacific hurricane season.