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African tropical wave designated Invest 92L, broad low pressure area forms over Northwestern Caribbean

African tropical wave designated Invest 92L, broad low pressure area forms over Northwestern Caribbean

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The Atlantic tropics are beginning to heat up as we get into mid-June. This morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the African wave we have been tracking for the last few days Invest 92L. 92L is the first in-season “invest” of the 2017 Atlantic season. In their 8:00 p.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO),  the NHC gave 92L a 40 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 60 percent chance within five days. In addition to…

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Tropical storm likely to form in Gulf next week, tropical wave is struggling

Tropical storm likely to form in Gulf next week, tropical wave is struggling

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  Global models on Thursday have generally become more optimistic with Gulf of Mexico development and less optimistic with deep tropics development. At 2:00 PM EDT Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a near zero percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming from a monsoonal low in the Gulf of Mexico within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. This is up from yesterday at this time, at which NHC only gave a 20 percent…

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Watching the Atlantic: a tropical wave and a monsoon gyre – not imminent threats at this time

Watching the Atlantic: a tropical wave and a monsoon gyre – not imminent threats at this time

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There continues to be two areas of interest in the Atlantic today, both only having a low chance of development within the next five days. Models continue to indicate that a broad area of low pressure will likely form over the Northwestern Caribbean during the next few days, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance of…

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Calvin, Merbok dissipate, National Hurricane Center mentions development possibility in Caribbean

Calvin, Merbok dissipate, National Hurricane Center mentions development possibility in Caribbean

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This morning, Tropical Storm Calvin in the East Pacific and Tropical Storm Merbok in the West Pacific both dissipated inland Mexico and China, respectively. So far, no fatalities or significant damage have been reported from either storm. The Pacific should remain quiet for a while, and the Atlantic basin is now the basin to watch. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) first noted the possibility of development in the Western Caribbean in five days this morning in its 8:00 AM EDT…

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TD Three-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Calvin, TS Merbok makes landfall in Hong Kong, continuing to watch the Atlantic

TD Three-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Calvin, TS Merbok makes landfall in Hong Kong, continuing to watch the Atlantic

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The Northern Hemisphere tropics remain active today, with Tropical Storm Calvin being named in the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Merbok making landfall in Hong Kong, and the development threat in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by early next week. TROPICAL STORM CALVIN IS BORN The organization of Tropical Depression Three-E improved enough on Monday afternoon for the National Hurricane Center to upgrade it to Tropical Storm Calvin at 5:00 PM EDT (4:00 PM CDT local time). Calvin is the…

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Tropical Depression Three-E quickly forms in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Merbok a threat to China, and Caribbean development still a possibility

Tropical Depression Three-E quickly forms in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Merbok a threat to China, and Caribbean development still a possibility

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The tropics are coming to life in the Northern Hemisphere this weekend. At 5:00 PM EDT (4:00 PM CDT local time), Tropical Depression Three-E was designated in the East Pacific. Three-E is the third tropical cyclone of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. In addition, Tropical Storm Merbok was named by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in the South China Sea, making it the second named storm of the 2017 Pacific typhoon season. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E (EAST PACIFIC) The National Hurricane…

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Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

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The tropics are likely about to get active in both the Atlantic and Pacific with multiple areas to watch. Several recent model runs have predicted the development of a large, disorganized tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean in about a week. The 12z Saturday GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM models all predicted the second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year to form by June 20.  The CMC track is farther east and predicts a landfall in Florida by Day 10,…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

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It is Friday, and that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic remains quiet for now, with the National Hurricane Center not expecting the development of any new tropical cyclones during the next five days. However, there are indications that the Atlantic could wake up in the long range – I will discuss this in detail tomorrow. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic continue to gradually warm up with time….

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June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Thursday morning, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly discussion on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is typically released on the second Thursday of each month. Their update lowered the chances of El Niño for fall 2017, with chances being lowered from about 45% to 35-40%. No El Niño Watch was issued, meaning the development of El Niño is not imminent. This continues the trend of the past few ENSO discussions: lowering chances of El Niño and increasing chances of ENSO-neutral…

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Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

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A westerly wind burst is expected to occur in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. Westerly wind bursts are often associated with the development of El Niño, but they can also enhance cyclonic turning at the low latitudes. Most models agree that an area of low pressure is likely to form in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea in 48-72 hours, with the low likely moving inland into Central America by hour 96. Tropical cyclone development at this latitude is fairly rare because usually…

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