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The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

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The American Global Forecast System (GFS) model is one of the most reliable models used by meteorologists to predict the tracks of tropical cyclones. It runs on six-hour intervals at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC, for 384 hours (16 days). The GFS is the only major tropical weather model that runs for 384 hours: the CMC and ECMWF models run for 240 hours (ten days), while the HWRF hurricane model runs for 126 hours (just over five days). The…

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Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

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The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak…

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A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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June is the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and is on average the least active of the six months that make up the season. According to NOAA, the month of June has seen 92 total tropical cyclones since reliable records began in 1851. Of these 92 tropical cyclones, just 33 (35.9%) of them became hurricanes. This means that, on average, a named storm forms in June in slightly over half of all years. In uncommon cases, two or…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

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Usually I release “A Look At The Atlantic” posts on Fridays, but with Beatriz, I had to delay this post until today. Anyway, it is time to take a look at the Atlantic, the first since the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic remains mostly quiet, with the exception of an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the…

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Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

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Tropical Storm Beatriz made landfall Thursday afternoon in the Mexican state of Oaxaca around 4:00 PM local time. This morning, Beatriz rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, dissipating by 10:00 AM CDT. Beatriz at landfall was estimated to have maximum winds of at least 40 knots (45 mph) along with a minimum pressure of 1002 millibars, based on a ship report. This makes Beatriz the strongest storm so far of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz has already been…

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Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

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At 1:00 PM CDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Two-E in the East Pacific to Tropical Storm Beatriz. This was based on a 15:43 UTC ASCAT pass that showed a few vectors with winds near 40 knots (45 mph). On this basis, the intensity was increased to 40 knots (45 mph) with a minimum pressure of 1004 millibars. This ties Beatriz with May’s Tropical Storm Adrian as the strongest storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz…

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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today

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Today is June 1, which marks the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. It should be noted that we had Tropical Storm Arlene form in April, so technically the season has already started. The 6-month period from June 1 to November 30 accounts for roughly 97 percent of all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Activity sharply peaks around September 10, with a secondary peak around October 20. Unlike during the…

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Tropical Depression Two-E disorganized as it nears landfall in Mexico, no longer expected to become Tropical Storm Beatriz

Tropical Depression Two-E disorganized as it nears landfall in Mexico, no longer expected to become Tropical Storm Beatriz

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Tropical Depression Two-E has taken a more northward path than originally expected yesterday, and is now expected to make landfall in the Mexican State of Oaxaca this afternoon or evening. As of 10:00 AM CDT (11:00 AM EDT) Thursday, Tropical Depression Two-E was centered near 15.4°N 97.1°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 6 mph. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were estimated to be 30 knots (35 mph), with a minimum pressure of 1005 millibars. As I noted yesterday, the large…

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Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

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At 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E south of Mexico in the East Pacific. Maximum winds were estimated to be 25 knots (30 mph), along with a minimum pressure of 1007 millibars. The cyclone was centered near 13.9°N 97.8°W, with the center located near the center of an area of deep convection. Two-E was moving northeastward at about 3 mph.  The NHC expects TD Two-E to slowly strengthen over the next five…

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora made landfall early Tuesday around 7:30 a.m. local time in southeastern Bangladesh. The storm had 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots (75 mph – equivalent to a minimal category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), and 3-minute sustained winds of 60 knots (70 mph), at the time of landfall. The estimated minimum pressure was 978 mbar. Mora was the first Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of 2017 to have 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots or greater, making it the Northern…

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