It is Friday, and that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic remains quiet for now, with the National Hurricane Center not expecting the development of any new tropical cyclones during the next five days. However, there are indications that the Atlantic could wake up in the long range – I will discuss this in detail tomorrow.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic continue to gradually warm up with time. The entire Gulf of Mexico now has SSTs over 26°C (78.8°F), the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development. SSTs in the Caribbean Sea average 28-29°C (82.4-84.2°F), warm enough to support a strong tropical cyclone if wind shear becomes favorable. Much of the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) now has SSTs over 26°C as well, with the exception of right near the coast of Africa. The Atlantic MDR usually takes the longest time to warm up of the entire basin, with SSTs not usually peaking there until early September.

The pattern of SST anomalies has not changed much over the past couple of weeks. Warmer-than-normal SSTs continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic, with near-normal to slightly above normal SSTs in the Atlantic subtropics and tropical Pacific. The northwestern Atlantic continues to remain cooler than normal, but this has been a trend over the past several years that tends to weaken in summer. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are near-normal to slightly below normal – but Gulf of Mexico SST anomalies do not typically play a large role in the overall activity of the Atlantic hurricane season.

WIND SHEAR

Wind shear continues to remain unfavorable throughout most of the Atlantic basin, with the Gulf of Mexico, Western Atlantic, Northwestern Caribbean, and Atlantic MDR all average wind shear over 30 knots (35 mph). Wind shear is low (less than 15 knots), however, in the southwestern Caribbean, and in a spot in the central Atlantic. This strong wind shear is normal for June, and this is the primary reason why Atlantic hurricanes in the month of June are rare. The CFSv2 model continues to show Atlantic wind shear decreasing throughout the month, which could make the Atlantic more favorable with time. It should be noted, though, that wind shear can be unpredictable and is very difficult to forecast.

AFRICAN TROPICAL WAVES

The African wave train is fairly quiet at the moment, with minimal convective activity in the Atlantic MDR. Moderate amounts of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are currently present in the region, which is suppressing the convective activity of tropical waves in the area. This is normal for June, and it should be stressed that development in this region in June is very rare. However, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is fairly healthy, with numerous showers and thunderstorms located just north of the equator. Global models continue to indicate an uptick in tropical wave activity during the next week or so, as noted earlier this week in a blog post.

I will be back tomorrow for a blog post on the possible systems to watch in the Atlantic and East Pacific over the coming days.