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Category: A Look at the Atlantic

Harvey expected to regenerate – a potential major flooding threat for Texas

Harvey expected to regenerate – a potential major flooding threat for Texas

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey crossed the Yucatan Peninsula today and have recently emerged into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Ex-Harvey is expected to regenerate into a Tropical Depression or Storm tomorrow or Thursday, and is likely to make landfall in south-central Texas by late Friday. After that time, it is possible that Harvey could meander for several days, possibly causing serious flooding. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, the remnants of Harvey were centered near 20.8°N 90.9°W, and were moving…

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A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

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Because of the recent active tropics, especially in the Eastern Pacific, I have not been able to release a typical “A Look at the Atlantic” post. I decided to do one today to give an update on the current state of the Atlantic and when we can expect to see our next tropical cyclone form. Sea surface temperatures Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm throughout the Atlantic basin, and are now warm enough to support development in most areas…

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A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

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It is Friday, and as always, that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic! The Atlantic basin remains mostly quiet for the moment, with no active tropical cyclones or investigative areas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not anticipating any development over the next five days. However, several recent runs of the GFS model and its ensembles have been indicating the possibility of development of a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic during the next…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 23, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 23, 2017

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For the first time in two weeks, it is Friday and the Atlantic has quieted down. That means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic has quieted down after Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy. Cindy has transitioned into a post-tropical low this evening. The Atlantic is soon going to enter its normal “summer quiescence” with no development expected until at least mid-July. Due to a suppressed MJO phase, Atlantic activity during early July is not…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 9, 2017

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It is Friday, and that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic remains quiet for now, with the National Hurricane Center not expecting the development of any new tropical cyclones during the next five days. However, there are indications that the Atlantic could wake up in the long range – I will discuss this in detail tomorrow. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic continue to gradually warm up with time….

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A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

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Usually I release “A Look At The Atlantic” posts on Fridays, but with Beatriz, I had to delay this post until today. Anyway, it is time to take a look at the Atlantic, the first since the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic remains mostly quiet, with the exception of an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

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It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

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Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are slowly warming up, while wind shear is slowly decreasing. The Atlantic basin is not quite ready for tropical cyclones yet, but should be fairly soon. Each Friday when a storm is not active, I will do a detailed analysis of the Atlantic, including sea surface temperatures and anomalies, wind shear, and convective activity. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic continue to slowly warm up, with the 26°C isotherm now stretching…

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