Cyclonic Fury’s May 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: potentially well-above average season anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: potentially well-above average season anticipated

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The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow. For the first time since 2014, it appears as if we will not see a named storm form prior to the official start of the season. Regardless, environmental conditions appear conducive for the seventh straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a persistent La Nina in place and a continuation of an ongoing active era of Atlantic hurricane activity. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Currently, the overall sea surface temperature anomaly pattern appears favorable…

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Agatha rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches southern Mexico

Agatha rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches southern Mexico

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Tropical Storm Agatha over the eastern Pacific intensified into a hurricane on Sunday morning, and has now rapidly intensified into a high-end Category 2 hurricane as it turns northeastward towards landfall in southern Mexico. Agatha is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening, likely as a major hurricane. Agatha is the first eastern Pacific hurricane to form in May since Andres in 2015. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Agatha was centered near 14.1°N 98.7°W, and was moving…

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TS Agatha forms over the eastern Pacific, expected to make landfall in southern Mexico as a hurricane

TS Agatha forms over the eastern Pacific, expected to make landfall in southern Mexico as a hurricane

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The first named storm of the 2022 Pacific hurricane season – Agatha – developed Saturday morning southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Agatha is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall in western Oaxaca Monday evening. Agatha’s remnants could emerge into the Bay of Campeche and will need to be monitored for possible redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Agatha was centered near 13.2°N 98.4°W,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Seventh straight above-average season likely

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Seventh straight above-average season likely

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The official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is just over two months away, and the past seven seasons have had at least one named storm prior to June. As the season draws closer, there is increasing confidence that the Atlantic could be headed for its seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. El Niño appears very unlikely to develop, and the Atlantic remains in an active era of hurricane activity that began in 1995. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Pattern The…

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Above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ends on a quiet note

Above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ends on a quiet note

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The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms (one of which was subtropical), 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy total of 145.1. This marked the Atlantic’s sixth-straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, and the third-most active season on record in terms of named storms (behind 2020 and 2005). The average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from 1991-2020 are 14, 7, and 3 respectively. The…

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A historically quiet October in the Atlantic, but 94L could develop

A historically quiet October in the Atlantic, but 94L could develop

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After having 20 named storms, the second-most on record through that date, before the start of October, it has been a historically quiet month of October in the Atlantic basin. Thus far, no tropical cyclones have formed in the month of October in the North Atlantic. The last year to have no tropical cyclones to form during the month of October in the Atlantic was 2015, which was a very strong El Niño year. What makes this inactivity even more…

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Sam a powerful Category 4 hurricane, likely to remain a strong hurricane for several days

Sam a powerful Category 4 hurricane, likely to remain a strong hurricane for several days

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Hurricane Sam, the 7th hurricane and 4th major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, is a strong Category 4 hurricane over the deep tropical Atlantic. Sam is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for several days, and move northwestward away from the Leeward Islands. Sam is then expected to remain well offshore the United States east coast, though Sam could pass close to Bermuda. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Sam was centered near 14.2°N 50.5°W, and was moving…

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Tropical Storm Sam forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to become a strong hurricane

Tropical Storm Sam forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to become a strong hurricane

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The Atlantic’s eighteenth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Sam, formed over the central tropical Atlantic on Thursday morning. Sam is in a very favorable environment for intensification and is likely to become a major hurricane in a few days. It remains too soon to tell if Sam will affect any land areas. Sam is the second-earliest eighteenth named storm on record in the Atlantic, surpassing Hurricane Rita of 2005 and behind only Hurricane Sally of…

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TS Peter and TS Rose form over the tropical Atlantic, both expected to remain weak and away from land

TS Peter and TS Rose form over the tropical Atlantic, both expected to remain weak and away from land

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Two named storms formed on Sunday, Tropical Storm Peter and Tropical Storm Rose, the 16th and 17th named storms of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Both tropical storms are expected to remain weak and not become hurricanes. Rose’s formation marks the second straight year and only the third time in history in which the “R” named storm formed in the month of September. Early Sunday morning, a long-tracked tropical wave developed into Tropical Storm Peter, the 16th named storm of…

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TS Odette forms off U.S. east coast, likely to quickly become post-tropical

TS Odette forms off U.S. east coast, likely to quickly become post-tropical

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Tropical Storm Odette, the 15th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Friday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center. Odette formed from an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. This is the second time the name “Odette” has been used in the Atlantic basin, with the first occurrence being a rare Caribbean December tropical storm in 2003. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Odette was centered near 36.7°N 71.8°W,…

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