CYCLONIC FURY

Broad area of low pressure worth watching for possible tropical development off U.S. east coast

June 11, 2024 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, though so far, no tropical cyclones have developed in the Atlantic basin this season despite expectations of an extremely active season. This is not particularly unusual, as the average first named storm in the Atlantic basin does not occur until approximately June 25. However, there is now a system worth watching for potential development, designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. A broad area of low pressure has developed over…

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Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: exceptionally conducive setup could lead to very active season

March 26, 2024 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, just slightly over two months away. As the start of the season draws closer, confidence increases in forecasting the upcoming hurricane season. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished with above-average activity despite a strong El Nino, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. However, it was the least destructive season since 2014, and no names were retired for the first time since that year. It appears…

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Lee rapidly intensifies into Category 4 hurricane, could become a Category 5 soon; TS Margot forms over the eastern Atlantic

September 7, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Lee is rapidly intensifying over the central tropical Atlantic, and is now a Category 4 hurricane. Lee has been intensifying at a remarkable pace, and has a good shot to become a Category 5 hurricane during the next day or two. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Lee was centered near 16.9°N 51.3°W, and was moving west-northwestward at approximately 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 953 mb. This…

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Tropical Storm Lee forms, expected to become strong hurricane north of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend

September 5, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic’s thirteenth named storm, Lee, formed this afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Lee is in a very favorable environment for intensification and is expected to become, at least, a Category 4 hurricane by late this weekend as it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Lee was centered near 13.2°N 41.8°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated…

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Invest 95L likely to become powerful hurricane over the tropical Atlantic

September 4, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

An area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic, designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center. 95L is likely to become a powerful hurricane by the weekend as it moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As of 18:00 UTC Monday, Invest 95L was centered near 11.4°N 34.9°W. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. The associated shower and thunderstorm…

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Franklin begins to weaken, Idalia now a Category 2 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico

August 29, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic currently has simultaneously active hurricanes for the first time of the season. Hurricane Franklin is gradually beginning to weaken over the western subtropical Atlantic, while Hurricane Idalia is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall in northwestern Florida around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Franklin was centered near 31.4°N 69.9°W, and was moving eastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 110 knots (125 mph), with an estimated…

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Franklin rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane; TS Idalia expected to hit northwestern Florida as a major hurricane

August 28, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic basin is very active today, with Hurricane Franklin becoming the first major hurricane of the season early this morning and Tropical Storm Idalia nearing hurricane strength near the western tip of Cuba. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Franklin was centered near 28.5°N 71.0°W, and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 125 knots (145 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 937 mb. This makes Franklin a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson…

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Franklin becomes the second hurricane of the season, TD 10 forms over the Yucatan Channel

August 26, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Franklin intensified into the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season Saturday morning, and is expected to intensify further to major hurricane intensity well offshore of the United States east coast. The larger threat is Tropical Depression Ten, which has just developed over the northwestern Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel. TD Ten is expected to become a hurricane and make landfall somewhere in northwestern Florida, but the exact details on track and intensity are still highly uncertain…

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Franklin moving away from Hispaniola, expected to become a hurricane over the western Atlantic

August 23, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Franklin has re-emerged off the coast of Hispaniola into the western Atlantic Ocean, and is expected to become a hurricane in a few days. As of 8:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Franklin was centered near 20.6°N 70.5°W, and was moving north-northeastward at approximately 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1004 mb. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Franklin, and actually found that Franklin’s low-level circulation…

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Disorganized Franklin headed for Hispaniola, Harold weakens to a depression over south Texas

August 22, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic tropics remain active, though none of the current systems are intense at the moment. Tropical Depression Gert became a post-tropical remnant low this morning. Tropical Storm Harold has weakened to a depression, while Tropical Storm Franklin is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone over the central Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Franklin appears to have become less organized than yesterday, and barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone at the moment. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the estimated…

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