A bizarrely quiet start to peak season in the Atlantic

A bizarrely quiet start to peak season in the Atlantic

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Historically, tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin rapidly increases around August 20. The late Dr. William Gray, a meteorologist and hurricane expert at Colorado State University, would ring a bell every year on that date to signal the start of the active portion of the Atlantic hurricane season. Early projections, including our own, predicted that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would have well above-average activity, and could be one of the most active seasons on record. The formation…

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Beryl slowly strengthening, expected to become a hurricane before making landfall in Texas

Beryl slowly strengthening, expected to become a hurricane before making landfall in Texas

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Once a mighty Category 5 hurricane (the earliest in the North Atlantic on record), Tropical Storm Beryl has been slowly strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to make landfall in central Texas early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Due to dry air and a fairly broad wind field, Beryl has been unable to rapidly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico thus far, but some additional intensification appears likely in the last few hours before landfall….

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Tropical Storm Alberto forms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico – impacts expected well north of the center

Tropical Storm Alberto forms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico – impacts expected well north of the center

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Tropical Storm Alberto – the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and is expected to make landfall over central Mexico early tomorrow morning. Alberto is the latest first named storm in the Atlantic basin since Arthur in 2014; however, this is nothing unusual: the long-term average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 25. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT (4:00 p.m. CDT…

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Broad area of low pressure worth watching for possible tropical development off U.S. east coast

Broad area of low pressure worth watching for possible tropical development off U.S. east coast

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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, though so far, no tropical cyclones have developed in the Atlantic basin this season despite expectations of an extremely active season. This is not particularly unusual, as the average first named storm in the Atlantic basin does not occur until approximately June 25. However, there is now a system worth watching for potential development, designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. A broad area of low pressure has developed over…

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Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: exceptionally conducive setup could lead to very active season

Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: exceptionally conducive setup could lead to very active season

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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, just slightly over two months away. As the start of the season draws closer, confidence increases in forecasting the upcoming hurricane season. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished with above-average activity despite a strong El Nino, with 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. However, it was the least destructive season since 2014, and no names were retired for the first time since that year. It appears…

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Lee rapidly intensifies into Category 4 hurricane, could become a Category 5 soon; TS Margot forms over the eastern Atlantic

Lee rapidly intensifies into Category 4 hurricane, could become a Category 5 soon; TS Margot forms over the eastern Atlantic

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Hurricane Lee is rapidly intensifying over the central tropical Atlantic, and is now a Category 4 hurricane. Lee has been intensifying at a remarkable pace, and has a good shot to become a Category 5 hurricane during the next day or two. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Lee was centered near 16.9°N 51.3°W, and was moving west-northwestward at approximately 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 953 mb. This…

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Tropical Storm Lee forms, expected to become strong hurricane north of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend

Tropical Storm Lee forms, expected to become strong hurricane north of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend

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The Atlantic’s thirteenth named storm, Lee, formed this afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Lee is in a very favorable environment for intensification and is expected to become, at least, a Category 4 hurricane by late this weekend as it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Lee was centered near 13.2°N 41.8°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated…

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Invest 95L likely to become powerful hurricane over the tropical Atlantic

Invest 95L likely to become powerful hurricane over the tropical Atlantic

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An area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic, designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center. 95L is likely to become a powerful hurricane by the weekend as it moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As of 18:00 UTC Monday, Invest 95L was centered near 11.4°N 34.9°W. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. The associated shower and thunderstorm…

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Franklin begins to weaken, Idalia now a Category 2 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Franklin begins to weaken, Idalia now a Category 2 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico

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The Atlantic currently has simultaneously active hurricanes for the first time of the season. Hurricane Franklin is gradually beginning to weaken over the western subtropical Atlantic, while Hurricane Idalia is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall in northwestern Florida around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Franklin was centered near 31.4°N 69.9°W, and was moving eastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 110 knots (125 mph), with an estimated…

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Franklin rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane; TS Idalia expected to hit northwestern Florida as a major hurricane

Franklin rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane; TS Idalia expected to hit northwestern Florida as a major hurricane

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The Atlantic basin is very active today, with Hurricane Franklin becoming the first major hurricane of the season early this morning and Tropical Storm Idalia nearing hurricane strength near the western tip of Cuba. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Franklin was centered near 28.5°N 71.0°W, and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 125 knots (145 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 937 mb. This makes Franklin a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson…

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