91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

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As is typical for June and July, the eastern Pacific basin is about to get active. The basin already has seen one tropical cyclone – Tropical Depression One-E – form this year, but the eastern Pacific should see its first named storm, Aletta, form this week. Invest 91E currently is given by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) a 60 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of development within five days. There is also a…

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Expert forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season remain mixed

Expert forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season remain mixed

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All pre-season forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season have been released, and they remain mixed, ranging from a very quiet season (TSR) to a very active season (NCSU). Cyclonic Fury’s forecast is somewhat in between the two extremes, calling for near to slightly below average activity. The forecasts, with the exception of NCSU, do agree on something: the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will very likely be less active than last year. In April, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released…

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The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today

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Today is June 1, which marks the official start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which will run for 183 days until November 30. It should be noted that we recently had Subtropical Storm Alberto in late May, so the season has already started. The 6-month period from June 1 to November 30 accounts for roughly 97 percent of all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Activity sharply peaks around September 10, with a secondary peak around October 20….

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Alberto weakens to a Subtropical Depression, tropics expected to be quiet for at least the next week

Alberto weakens to a Subtropical Depression, tropics expected to be quiet for at least the next week

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Subtropical Storm Alberto weakened to a Subtropical Depression on Monday night, and has continued to slowly weaken this morning. The center of Alberto is currently moving through central Alabama, and the heavy rainfall threat continues. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Tuesday, Subtropical Depression Alberto was centered near 33.8°N 87.2°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots…

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Alberto makes landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida

Alberto makes landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida

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Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida at about 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Monday afternoon. At landfall, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 994 mb. This was down from Alberto’s peak intensity early Monday, when it packed maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 990 mb. Alberto is the first subtropical cyclone to make landfall in the United…

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Alberto headed for landfall in Western Florida Panhandle

Alberto headed for landfall in Western Florida Panhandle

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Subtropical Storm Alberto has only strengthened slightly since yesterday, and is expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon. Due to dry air entrainment and moderate southeasterly wind shear, Alberto has been unable to significantly strengthen, and the storm has not transitioned into a tropical cyclone. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight before landfall if Alberto is able to fight off the dry air, but it appears as if time is running out for significant strengthening….

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SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

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Subtropical Storm Alberto is slightly better organized today. The original low-level circulation over the Northwestern Caribbean has dissipated and a new, well-defined circulation has developed northwest of Cuba. Alberto is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics, and should transition into a fully tropical storm by late Sunday. Most of the model guidance has shifted slightly east today, and it appears as if Alberto will make landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida sometime on Monday. It appears less likely today that…

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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

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For the fourth year in a row, a pre-season tropical or subtropical cyclone has formed over the Atlantic basin. At 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Northwestern Caribbean. Alberto is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, where it will likely find environmental conditions more favorable for strengthening. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, newly-named Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered near 19.7°N 86.8°W, and was moving north-northeast at…

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Invest 90L becoming better organized over the Yucatan Peninsula, expected to develop

Invest 90L becoming better organized over the Yucatan Peninsula, expected to develop

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Invest 90L is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning, and will likely make landfall somewhere between the western Florida Panhandle and eastern Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. Models have come into better agreement from yesterday, and it appears likely that the Atlantic will see a pre-season named storm for the fourth season in a row….

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Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

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Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized with Invest 90L, currently located over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong wind shear and land interaction are expected to limit organization for the next couple of days, but some development is likely by Saturday when it emerges into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a near zero percent chance of formation within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The…

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