Today is June 1, which marks the official start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which will run for 183 days until November 30. It should be noted that we recently had Subtropical Storm Alberto in late May, so the season has already started. The 6-month period from June 1 to November 30 accounts for roughly 97 percent of all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Activity sharply peaks around September 10, with a secondary peak around October 20. Unlike during the off-season, during the June 1 to November 30 period, the National Hurricane Center issues routine Tropical Weather Outlooks every six hours, at 2:00 AM, 8:00 AM, 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM EDT.

The graphic indicated above displays the amount of activity at different points in the Atlantic hurricane season. June and July are usually fairly quiet, with only about 1-2 storms forming before August 1 on average. Activity jumps in August, which averages 2-3 named storms alone, with a peak in September which averages around 4 storms. Activity usually begins to slow down in October, which averages about 2 named storms, and November averages one storm about two out of every three years. The “Cabo Verde” part of the season – where a large amount of named storms form from African easterly waves in the far eastern Atlantic – usually lasts from about July 25 to September 30, with a spike in activity from August 15 to September 20. An “average” Atlantic hurricane season has about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of about 95 units.

The following names will be used in the season (following Alberto, which has already been used). Their pronunciations are also listed, from the National Hurricane Center pronunciation guide.

• Beryl (BEHR-il)
• Chris (kris)
• Debby (DEH-bee)
• Ernesto (er-NES-toh)
• Florence (FLOOR-ence)
• Gordon (GOR-duhn)
• Helene (heh-LEEN)
• Isaac (EYE-zik)
• Joyce (joyss)
• Kirk (kurk)
• Leslie (LEHZ-lee)
• Michael (MY-kuhl)
• Nadine (nay-DEEN)
• Oscar (AHS-kur)
• Patty (PAT-ee)
• Rafael (rah-fah-ELL)
• Sara (SAIR-uh)
• Tony (TOH-nee)
• Valerie (VAH-lur-ee)
• William (WILL-yum)

This is List 4 of the six rotating lists used to name tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. It is the same list used in 2012, with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy. It is likely that we will only get about halfway through this list since 2018 is unlikely to be a hyperactive season. In the extremely unlikely case that all names are used up, the Greek alphabet will be used to name storms.

Even though the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, the basin is quiet, with no tropical cyclone activity expected for the next five days. The East Pacific, however, has a low chance of tropical development within five days. I will be back with another post tomorrow analyzing all the different seasonal hurricane outlooks issued this year.