CYCLONIC FURY

Pre-season subtropical development possible this weekend north of the Bahamas

May 12, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

An area of low pressure is expected to develop north of the Bahamas on Saturday. This area of low pressure has a medium chance to become the Atlantic’s first subtropical or tropical cyclone of 2020. Although the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1, the month of May has seen a total of 9 subtropical or tropical cyclones form since 2007. These cyclones include Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007), Tropical Storm Arthur (2008), Tropical Depression One (2009), Tropical…

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Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

April 25, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

For the first time in recorded history, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin during the month of April. Tropical Depression One-E – the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific east of 140°W – developed Saturday morning, and has a brief window to intensify into a tropical storm Saturday night before conditions become unfavorable. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT/2:00 p.m. PDT Saturday, Tropical Depression One-E was centered near 14.5°N 116.9°W, and was moving northwestward…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Active season likely, but still early

March 31, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, just over two months from today. The Atlantic has not been following these seasonal boundaries lately, though, with the past five years all having at least one named storm form prior to June 1 (most of these storms have been weak, however). Forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity in March is challenging because of uncertainties with the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern as well as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, the…

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Category 2 Hurricane Jerry expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands

September 19, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Jerry quickly intensified on Thursday to become a Category 2 hurricane over the western tropical Atlantic. Jerry is the tenth named storm and fourth hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Jerry was centered near 18.0°N 57.2°W. Maximum sustained winds were 90 knots (105 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 976 mb. Some slight additional intensification is possible overnight, but Jerry is expected to encounter increasing northwesterly shear tomorrow. Based…

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Hurricane Dorian very close to the coast of South Carolina

September 5, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Dorian remains a powerful hurricane and is currently just offshore South Carolina. Dorian could make landfall somewhere in eastern North Carolina on Thursday night, but the model guidance is still split on whether or not a landfall will occur. Dorian is already bringing hurricane conditions and storm surge to the coastal Carolinas. Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings remain effect for most of the region, with Tropical Storm Warnings extending into southeastern Virginia and even the coast of Massachusetts….

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Dorian weakens as it stalls near Grand Bahama Island, threat to Southeast U.S. remains

September 2, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Dorian has not moved much since yesterday as it has battered the Northwestern Bahamas with hurricane conditions for over 24 hours. Due to an eyewall replacement cycle and possible upwelling of cooler water, Dorian has weakened some since yesterday, but remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane. However, the eyewall replacement cycle has resulted in Dorian’s wind field expanding, which increases the chances that the United States southeast coast may receive hurricane-force winds even if the center of Dorian does…

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Dorian becomes an extremely catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds

September 1, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Dorian rapidly intensified once again overnight, and this morning has become the strongest hurricane on record in the Bahamas region of the Atlantic. Dorian has become a Category 5 hurricane, the fifth in the last four years, making 2016 to 2019 the first time on record that four consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons had at least one Category 5 hurricane. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Dorian was centered near 26.5°N 76.8°W, and was moving westward at about 7…

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Dorian becomes the first major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic season

August 30, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Dorian has intensified into Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), making it the first major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Dorian is a major threat to the northern Bahamas and the southeastern United States early next week. As of 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Hurricane Dorian was centered near 24.8°N 70.3°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 100 knots (115 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 970…

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Dorian becomes a hurricane, could threaten Southeastern U.S. as a dangerous major hurricane

August 28, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Dorian intensified into the second hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday afternoon after multiple reports of hurricane-force winds were reported in St. Thomas. Dorian is likely to continue to intensify, perhaps rapidly, over the next few days and could threaten the southeastern United States, especially Florida, as a very dangerous major hurricane. The exact track remains uncertain, but Florida appears to be at the highest risk right now. Dorian becoming a major concern, especially for Florida…

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TS Dorian strengthens over the tropical Atlantic, 98L likely to develop

August 25, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Dorian, the first tropical cyclone to form in the deep Atlantic tropics this season, is gradually becoming better organized as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. In the western Atlantic, Invest 98L is still likely to develop, but it is less likely to become an intense storm than initially predicted. Dorian getting better organized over the tropical Atlantic Tropical Storm Dorian, the first tropical cyclone to form in the deep Atlantic tropics this season, is gradually becoming better organized…

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