Hurricane Dorian has intensified into Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), making it the first major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Dorian is a major threat to the northern Bahamas and the southeastern United States early next week.

As of 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Hurricane Dorian was centered near 24.8°N 70.3°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 100 knots (115 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 970 mb. This intensity is based on reconnaissance aircraft data. With sea surface temperatures of 29-30 °C (84.2-86°F), light wind shear (less than 15 knots), and mid-level relative humidity values above 55%, Dorian is in a highly conducive environment for additional strengthening. Dorian is likely to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane by Sunday. The center of Dorian is likely to pass over the northern Bahamas on Sunday night and early Monday morning as a very dangerous major hurricane. Afterwards, Dorian is likely to make landfall in south-central Florida, also as a very dangerous major hurricane. The exact landfall location and time remains uncertain, but there is now confidence that Florida will be impacted by a powerful hurricane early next week. After making landfall, most of the model guidance shows that Dorian will make a turn to the north, which means that the heavy rainfall threat will extend beyond Florida. If Dorian does indeed take the north turn as expected, the heavy rainfall threat is likely to stretch into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. Residents in the Florida peninsula should have their hurricane plan ready and be prepared to evacuate if needed. We should have more clarity of the exact track and timing by Sunday.

New tropical wave might develop

A tropical wave that recently exited the coast of Africa has a chance to develop into the Atlantic’s next tropical cyclone early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, but a 30 percent chance within five days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Fernand.