The short life of Tropical Storm Bret came to an end Tuesday afternoon as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded it to a remnant low because it degenerated into a tropical wave. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy, the third named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and is forecast to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border and bring heavy rains to the Southeastern United States.

Historic Tropical Storm Bret degenerates into a tropical wave

Tropical Storm Bret “opened up” into a tropical wave Tuesday afternoon, based on the lack of a well defined circulation on satellite imagery. Fast movement and strong wind shear in the Southeastern Caribbean Sea caused Bret’s life to end sooner than expected. Bret passed through Trinidad Monday evening, and was responsible for flooding and several downed trees. However, Bret’s appearance degraded quickly today, enough for the National Hurricane Center to terminate advisories and declare it a remnant low. Bret’s remnants are expected to dissipate completely tomorrow over the Central Caribbean due to strong shear, and regeneration is not expected.

Tropical Storm Cindy: a rainmaker for the Southeastern United States

Tropical Storm Cindy was named Tuesday afternoon at 1:00 PM CDT after a reconnaissance aircraft identified a well-defined, but exposed, circulation. Cindy is not a well organized storm, and its circulation continues to be exposed to view due to strong shear. Nearly all of Cindy’s thunderstorm activity is located to the northeast of the center. Cindy has some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone, with a large wind field and that the strongest winds are located far from the center.

As of 4:00 PM CDT Tuesday, Cindy was located over the central Gulf of Mexico near 25.7°N 90.6°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 40 knots (45 mph), with a minimum pressure of 999 mb, based on the reports from the aircraft. Cindy has a large radius of tropical storm force winds, stretching out over 200 miles north and east of the center. Cindy is not likely to strengthen much during the next couple of days. While sea surface temperatures are a warm 28-29°C (82.4-84.2°F), strong wind shear of over 25 knots (30 mph) is expected to keep the storm disorganized. The wind shear could decrease slightly before landfall, but the cyclone’s current disorganized structure and imminent landfall will likely prevent significant strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast calls for Cindy to peak at 45 knots (50 mph), however, Cindy could be slightly stronger than this despite its disorganized structure. Hurricane strength is extremely unlikely for Cindy due to the strong shear, like most June Gulf of Mexico storms.

The track forecast continues to become more confident for Cindy. Cindy is expected to resume a northwestward motion soon, and the official NHC track predicts that Cindy will make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border early Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance agrees. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River in Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area later tonight.  It should be stressed that the primary threat with Cindy is heavy rain, and that the heaviest rains will occur to the east of the center. Heavy rains are expected to occur throughout the southeastern United States over the next several days, far from Cindy’s center. Over 6 inches of rain is possible throughout the warning area, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches possible with the strongest thunderstorms. Isolated tornadoes are also possible with Cindy.

I will be back tomorrow with an update on Cindy, which is expected to become the first named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season to make landfall in the United States.