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Tropical Storm Fay forms off the Outer Banks of North Carolina – expected to threaten Northeastern United States as a tropical storm

Tropical Storm Fay forms off the Outer Banks of North Carolina – expected to threaten Northeastern United States as a tropical storm

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The North Atlantic basin’s earliest sixth named storm, Tropical Storm Fay, was named Thursday afternoon. Fay developed from a non-tropical system that had spent the past several days inland over the Southeastern United States. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Fay was centered near 35.5°N 74.9°W, and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft investigated Fay this…

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Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the far northern Atlantic, no threat to land

Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the far northern Atlantic, no threat to land

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Subtropical Depression Four formed along the Gulf Stream on Monday afternoon, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolly on Tuesday morning. Dolly is the fourth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dolly is no threat to land, and will likely become a remnant low on Wednesday. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dolly was centered near 40.1°N 61.1°W, and was moving east-northeastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated…

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Tropical Storm Cristobal headed for the U.S. Central Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal headed for the U.S. Central Gulf Coast

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Tropical Storm Cristobal, which made landfall in Campeche, Mexico on Wednesday morning with 60 mph winds, has reemerged into the Gulf of Mexico and regained tropical storm status. Cristobal could strengthen a bit more prior to making landfall in eastern Louisiana late Sunday, but the storm is not expected to reach hurricane intensity. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Cristobal was centered near 24.7°N 90.2°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained…

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Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

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The Atlantic’s earliest third named storm on record was named Tuesday morning – Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal broke the record previously held by Tropical Storm Colin of 2016, which formed on June 5. Cristobal, which is located over the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche, is likely to make landfall in the Mexican state of Campeche during the next day or so, before moving northward and threatening the United States Gulf Coast on Sunday or Monday. Note that the name Cristobal…

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2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began today, though two tropical storms had already formed – Arthur and Bertha. Arthur strengthened into a moderately strong tropical storm off the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks, while Bertha unexpectedly developed and made landfall in South Carolina. Invest 92L nearly developed into a subtropical cyclone early Saturday morning, but was unable to do so. However, Invest 93L has developed into Tropical Depression Three. TD Three, associated with the remnants of eastern…

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92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

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For the first time in 2020, there is an Invest (area of investigation) over both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Invest 92L over the central Atlantic could become a short-lived, weak subtropical cyclone during the next two days. Invest 91E is likely to develop into a weak tropical cyclone over the extreme eastern Pacific, but brings a heavy rainfall threat to southern Mexico and central America regardless of development. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is…

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Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

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Yet another May tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this time rather unexpectedly. On Wednesday morning, Invest 91L developed a new circulation center underneath the convection mass, and 91L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Bertha. Bertha has already moved inland into South Carolina, and weakening has already begun. Bertha is the Atlantic’s second tropical storm, approximately two months ahead of climatology. Bertha’s formation makes 2020 the first season since 2016 to feature two pre-season tropical cyclones, and the first…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1, but the Atlantic has already seen one tropical storm form – Arthur. Arthur formed off the United States East Coast on May 16 and passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on May 18, though overall effects were minimal. Our confidence has increased since late March that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will probably more active than normal, since the equatorial Pacific has cooled to below-normal levels,…

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Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

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A surface trough is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Due to strong upper-level winds, development of this trough into a tropical cyclone is unlikely at this time. Regardless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20% chance of development, within both the next 48 hours and five days. More likely, however, is the potential development of a tropical cyclone over the far eastern Pacific. A Central American Gyre (CAG) –…

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TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

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The center of Tropical Storm Arthur passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday morning, though the center did not make landfall. After Arthur’s convective structure degraded on Sunday, deep convection redeveloped on Monday morning, and Arthur strengthened. Arthur produced sustained tropical storm force winds across portions of the Outer Banks this morning and afternoon. All Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued at the 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday advisory. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Arthur…

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