The center of Tropical Storm Arthur passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday morning, though the center did not make landfall. After Arthur’s convective structure degraded on Sunday, deep convection redeveloped on Monday morning, and Arthur strengthened. Arthur produced sustained tropical storm force winds across portions of the Outer Banks this morning and afternoon. All Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued at the 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday advisory.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered near 36.1°N 73.9°W, and was moving northeastward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 993 mb. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Arthur for several hours this morning, and measured a peak flight-level wind of 62 knots and a peak SFMR wind of 44 knots. A NOAA buoy reported sustained winds of 43 mph, and a weather station at Alligator River Bridge reported sustained winds of 39 mph. The aircraft recorded an 8 mb pressure drop in six hours, from 1001 mb to 993 mb. It is unclear if this deepening has continued, as increasing southwesterly wind shear has caused Arthur’s circulation to become exposed to the southwest of the convective mass.

Some slight additional intensification may occur over the next 12-24 hours due to baroclinic processes as Arthur loses tropical characteristics while moving northeastward. Arthur should become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Arthur’s post-tropical remnants are expected to turn eastward tomorrow and southeastward on Wednesday, while gradually weakening. It is possible Arthur’s post-tropical remnants may bring minor impacts to Bermuda early Thursday.