The North Atlantic basin’s earliest sixth named storm, Tropical Storm Fay, was named Thursday afternoon. Fay developed from a non-tropical system that had spent the past several days inland over the Southeastern United States.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Fay was centered near 35.5°N 74.9°W, and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft investigated Fay this afternoon and found that the low-level circulation had reformed off the coast of Cape Hatteras, closer to the deep convection. Some slight intensification over the next 12-24 hours is likely, with wind shear relatively light (less than 15 knots). However, Fay is likely to move north of the 26°C (78.8°F) isotherm early tomorrow morning, which should limit significant intensification. Fay is likely to make landfall either along the eastern coast of New Jersey or Long Island, New York some time on Friday afternoon or evening as a moderate tropical storm. The last fully tropical cyclone to make landfall in this region was Irene in August 2011. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May, New Jersey to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. Fay should lose its tropical characteristics on Saturday as it moves northward towards Quebec, Canada.

A record-breaking start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season in named storms – but not storm intensity

As noted above, Fay is the earliest sixth named storm in the Atlantic basin since reliable records began. Fay broke the record previously held by Franklin of the most active on record 2005 season, which formed on July 21, 2005. It is important to note, however, that July 2005 saw three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, while 2020 is still yet to have a tropical cyclone reach hurricane strength in the Atlantic basin. This is not particularly surprising, as the average date of the first Atlantic hurricane formation is over a month away (August 10). I must stress that the high activity of weak storms early in the season does not mean anything about the intensity of the storms during the peak of the season. It is also important to note that the tropical storms have this season, aside from Cristobal, have mostly been non-tropical in origin. Regardless, expert groups continue to predict an above-average to potentially hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season for 2020. This is primarily due to warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the tropical Atlantic, the absence of El Niño, and a much wetter than normal African Sahel region. Colorado State University released their updated forecast on Tuesday, predicting 20 named storms (which would be tied for the second-most on record), 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Only two Atlantic hurricane seasons have ever reached or exceeded 20 tropical storms – 1933 and 2005 – and it appears a distinct possibility that may happen this season, considering the fast start and conducive atmospheric pattern. It is also interesting to note that Fay has formed more than three months earlier than its 2014 incarnation, which formed on October 10.