CYCLONIC FURY

94L taking its time developing over Atlantic

July 4, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 94L – a broad area of low pressure located about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – has a window of developing into a tropical depression during the next couple of days before conditions become less favorable. At 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 94L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours and an 80 percent chance of development within five days. 94L has been moving very slowly westward today. As of…

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Invest 94L likely to develop in Atlantic, three systems in East Pacific may develop, Nanmadol near Japan

July 3, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 94L – a broad area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone later this week as it moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 5-10 mph. In the Eastern Pacific, three systems (including Invest 94E) have a chance of development this week as well. In the West Pacific, Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol could pose a threat to Japan tomorrow. Invest 94L: Likely to…

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Tropical wave in Atlantic could develop, Invest 94E designated in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol forms in West Pacific

July 2, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Northern Hemisphere tropics are beginning to get active as they typically do in July. The Atlantic, East Pacific and West Pacific all have areas to watch this week. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave is located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is being monitored for gradual development. In the East Pacific, there is potential for two tropical cyclones to form with Invest 94E and another tropical wave. In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol has formed in…

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A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

July 1, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

July is the second month of Atlantic hurricane season. It is often quiet in the Atlantic (some years have no activity at all in the month), but tends to be slightly more active than June. According to NOAA, 118 tropical storms and 55 hurricanes have formed in the month of July since reliable records began in 1851. 25 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States in the month of July, most recently Category 2 Hurricane Arthur in early July…

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A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

June 30, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

It is Friday, and as always, that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic! The Atlantic basin remains mostly quiet for the moment, with no active tropical cyclones or investigative areas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not anticipating any development over the next five days. However, several recent runs of the GFS model and its ensembles have been indicating the possibility of development of a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic during the next…

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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

June 29, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The amount of Atlantic hurricane activity in a season is most directly driven by two factors: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These two oscillations are the primary indices used in forecasting activity for the Atlantic hurricane season. The AMO is a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Atlantic Ocean, and is strongly correlated with the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. While the ENSO changes nearly every year, the AMO is…

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Dora weakens to a remnant low, development in both Atlantic and East Pacific unlikely in near future

June 28, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Farewell, Dora The life of Hurricane Dora – the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2017 by wind speed – came to an end this morning. Dora became devoid of deep convection last night, and new convection did not redevelop. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared Dora a remnant low at 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) and terminated advisories. Dora is now just a swirl of low-level clouds, but a vigorous circulation…

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Dora weakens to a tropical storm, another East Pacific system, Chance of Atlantic MDR development decreasing

June 27, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Dora is feeling the effects of cooler sea surface temperatures, and has begun to weaken. Dora fell below hurricane strength this afternoon as deep convection has continued to decrease. Dora should continue to lose convection and become a remnant low by Thursday, if not sooner. Meanwhile, two other systems (one in the Atlantic and one in the East Pacific) both have a low chance of development over the next several days. Dora meeting its demise This morning, Dora…

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Dora peaks as a strong category 1 hurricane, two other systems to watch over coming days

June 26, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Dora rapidly intensified last night to become the first hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Dora strengthened to a high-end category 1 hurricane this afternoon, but cooling sea surface temperatures are likely to induce a weakening trend beginning tonight. Dora should weaken to a remnant low by Thursday as it continues moving northwestward in the Eastern Pacific. Forecast for Dora As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Dora was centered in the Eastern Pacific near 17.8°N…

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Tropical Storm Dora forms over the East Pacific, expected to become first hurricane of season

June 25, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Early Sunday, Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Dora, becoming the fourth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Dora has continued to strengthen this morning, although its circulation center has become partially exposed to the north of the main convective mass. Dora is likely to strengthen to a minimal hurricane by Tuesday before weakening commences as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Dora was centered near 15.0°N 101.8°W and was…

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