Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has become a little better organized today as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 90E a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. Scatterometer data from Tuesday afternoon indicates that the circulation has become much better defined, and an increase in convective organization will likely result in the formation of a tropical depression on Wednesday. 90E is no threat to land. As…

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Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

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The first “Invest” of the year for the Eastern Pacific – 90E – was designated Monday afternoon. 90E has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next five days, but conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by late week and into the weekend. 90E is no threat to any land areas. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane names

2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane names

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With the first tropical cyclone of 2018 potentially on the horizon for the Eastern Pacific basin, I thought it would be a good time to review the names that will be used this season in the basin. Just like the Atlantic basin, the Eastern Pacific has six rotating name lists that alternate between male and female names. There is one significant exception, however: the Eastern Pacific has names that start with X, Y and Z that alternate in odd and…

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Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

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Although the trough near the Bahamas did not develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, there is a strong model consensus that the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season may form next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the open Pacific near 10°N 120°W, and this system will need to be watched for potential development next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned…

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Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

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Late Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) of 2018 on the trough near the Bahamas. The system unofficially kicks off the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins in just four weeks on June 1. NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. It has not been given an “Invest” designation. The trough is expected to move westward,…

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Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

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Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed near the Bahamas today. A surface trough is expected to form north of Puerto Rico early Thursday morning, and this system has a very small chance of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics by Saturday. Wind shear over the region is currently extremely high – about 70 knots. However, shear is likely to drop on Friday as an upper-level low will move into the region – giving this system a narrow window of tropical or…

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Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in just one month, but there is a system worth watching for at least some slight development this weekend. A weak surface low pressure system is expected to develop southeast of the Bahamas late this week, and there is a low chance that it could take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics this weekend. This has been a hotspot for May tropical cyclones in recent years. Six tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic…

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World Meteorological Organization retires four Atlantic storm names

World Meteorological Organization retires four Atlantic storm names

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced Thursday morning at the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane committee that they had retired four Atlantic storm names from List III of the six rotating hurricane naming lists. The WMO retired the names Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate – the four most destructive storms of the costliest-on-record 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.  They have been replaced with Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel respectively. The four names retired is the most since the 2005…

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CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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Two of the most well known hurricane season forecast groups both released their preliminary April outlooks for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, as well as Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea, released outlooks with very different predictions.  However, both of these groups believe that the upcoming hurricane season, which officially begins in only eight weeks, will be less…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Today is March 20 – the vernal (spring) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The start of spring is a reminder that the start of hurricane season will soon be upon us in just over two months. On June 1, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, although there is about a 10 percent chance a storm could form before then. There is considerable uncertainty about how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season, as…

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