CYCLONIC FURY

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: numbers increased due to struggling El Niño

May 21, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1. So far, one named storm has formed in the North Atlantic basin in 2019 – Andrea. Now that it is May, the forecast has become clearer, and Cyclonic Fury now expects a more active season than our March forecast. This is primarily because El Niño has not strengthened over the last two months, and climate models have backed off their ENSO forecast. In addition, the equatorial Pacific subsurface has…

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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

May 20, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic’s first named storm of 2019 – Subtropical Storm Andrea – developed Monday evening southwest of Bermuda. Andrea marks the fifth straight year in which the Atlantic basin has had a named storm develop before the official start of the season (June 1). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance (90L) this afternoon, and found a well-defined circulation. As of 6:30 p.m. EDT Monday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 28.8°N 68.7°W, and was moving northward at…

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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

May 19, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

May 18, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

May 16, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little. As of 12:00 UTC May 16,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

May 15, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Today is May 15, the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. No tropical cyclones have developed yet in this basin in 2019; 2017 featured the pre-season Tropical Storm Adrian and 2018 featured the pre-season Tropical Depression One-E. The Eastern and Central Pacific is coming off a record-breaking 2018 season which featured 23 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5 hurricanes, and a record-high 318 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. With a weak El Nino event…

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Area of disturbed weather near Bahamas could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics

May 1, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins one month from today, but the basin is already showing its first signs of life. A non-tropical trough of low pressure has developed near the Bahamas and is currently disorganized, but conditions may become a bit more favorable for some slight development by late this weekend if it remains offshore the Atlantic coast. If this system develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Andrea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

March 26, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

In just over two months, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin June 1. It should be noted, however, that the last four Atlantic hurricane seasons have all featured at least one named storm form before this date! Like any year at this time, there remains considerable uncertainty about how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as how the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern will evolve between now and the peak of hurricane season. Currently weak…

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Slightly above average but destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season ends

November 30, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

As usual, November 30 marks the official end of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Activity this season spanned approximately five months, with Tropical Storm Alberto forming as a subtropical depression May 25 over the Northwestern Caribbean, and ending on October 31 with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlantic. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season produced 16 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, with an approximate Accumulated Cyclone Energy…

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Michael becomes a major hurricane as it heads for the Florida Panhandle, Leslie likely to become a hurricane again, Nadine forms in the eastern Atlantic

October 9, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic tropics are extremely active for October, with the basin having three named storms simultaneously active in the month for the first time since 1995. The strongest of these storms, Hurricane Michael, has intensified into the second major hurricane of the season over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and some additional intensification is expected before Michael makes landfall over the western Florida Panhandle. Long-lived Leslie, close to regaining hurricane intensity for the second time, could near Madeira Island and…

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