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Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

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A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance…

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Subtropical development possible in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week

Subtropical development possible in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week

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Tropical Depression One-E has degenerated into a remnant low, but there is already  another system in the tropics to watch over the coming days. An upper-level low pressure system is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain some tropical or subtropical characteristics before moving inland into the Northern Gulf Coast late Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned this system in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO). The 12z Saturday…

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TD One-E hanging on, Gulf of Mexico may warrant monitoring early next week

TD One-E hanging on, Gulf of Mexico may warrant monitoring early next week

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The first tropical depression of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Depression One-E, is holding on as a tropical depression despite strong wind shear over the eastern Pacific. One-E, which formed on Thursday afternoon, is likely to degenerate into a remnant low late today or early tomorrow. The remnants of One-E should move slowly north-northwestward before fully dissipating by Sunday. One-E is no threat to any land areas. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Depression One-E was…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Today is March 20 – the vernal (spring) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The start of spring is a reminder that the start of hurricane season will soon be upon us in just over two months. On June 1, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, although there is about a 10 percent chance a storm could form before then. There is considerable uncertainty about how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season, as…

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Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

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It may be December and the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is over five months away, but it is not too early to begin to speculate on what the next hurricane season will be like. The Atlantic basin featured hyperactive activity in 2017, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, along with a very high Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 226 units. The Atlantic’s 2017 season came after an also active but less intense 2016 season, which…

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Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

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November 30 marks the official end of the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. After seven months of activity, beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene in April and ending with Tropical Storm Rina in November, it is finally over. While the Eastern Pacific had an active, but fairly uneventful season, the Atlantic recorded its fifth most active season in terms of named storms and seventh most active season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The season will generally be most…

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Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

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It may be Veterans Day, but the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons still may not be over just yet. A trough of low pressure located southwest of the Azores – recently designated Invest 96L – has a chance to develop some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves northeastward. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 94E is becoming better organized quickly this afternoon and could become a tropical depression over the next couple days as it moves…

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Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

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Tropical Storm Rina transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday morning, with cold air being wrapped into its circulation. The post-tropical remnants of Rina should dissipate tomorrow or Saturday. The dissipation of Rina could mark the end of the extremely active and destructive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. But will it? Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until November 30, and it’s not out of the question to see development during the month of December. While the majority of Atlantic hurricane…

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Rina strengthens a little more – expected to turn post-tropical Wednesday night or Thursday morning

Rina strengthens a little more – expected to turn post-tropical Wednesday night or Thursday morning

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Tropical Storm Rina has strengthened a little more today as it moves northward into the cool waters of the Northern Atlantic. Rina has begun to acquire some subtropical characteristics, with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and little deep convection near the center. However, Rina maintains a warm core so it has not been declared a post-tropical cyclone yet. Regardless, Rina should transition into an extratropical cyclone late tonight or early Thursday as it loses all deep convection and becomes embedded in…

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Tropical Storm Rina strengthening over the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Rina strengthening over the Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Rina, the seventeenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, is gradually gaining strength over the central subtropical Atlantic. As of 10:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, Rina was centered near 35.4°N 48.5°W, and was moving northward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Rina is likely to strengthen a little more on Wednesday, partially aided by baroclinic forcing and marginally favorable conditions. Rina should then transition…

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