A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance could still slowly acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics before it moves inland into the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. The primary impact of this system will be heavy rains for Florida and the Southeastern United States, which will be beneficial in some areas.

The disturbance remains poorly organized today. Although mid-to-low level swirls have been occasionally visible in satellite imagery, the overall circulation of the disturbance is broad, and no single well-defined circulation is present. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and limited near the system, and surface pressures are fairly high in the area. Conditions for tropical or subtropical cyclone development remain very marginal. Sea surface temperatures are cool – about 25°C (77°F), and wind shear remains moderate. Since this system has not been designated an Invest, SHIPS Tropical Cyclone output is unavailable.

Global models have trended weaker with the system today. The 12z Monday GFS, ECMWF, and CMC model runs all predicted little to no development with this system, and keep the system a broad low pressure area. The only reliable model predicting tropical cyclone genesis was the 12z Monday UKMET model run. It is appearing increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone may not develop, but heavy rains are coming to Florida and the Southeastern United States regardless of development.

I will be back with another post tomorrow, which is the official start of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. If the area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico organizes into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Alberto.