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92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

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For the first time in 2020, there is an Invest (area of investigation) over both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Invest 92L over the central Atlantic could become a short-lived, weak subtropical cyclone during the next two days. Invest 91E is likely to develop into a weak tropical cyclone over the extreme eastern Pacific, but brings a heavy rainfall threat to southern Mexico and central America regardless of development. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is…

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Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

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A surface trough is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Due to strong upper-level winds, development of this trough into a tropical cyclone is unlikely at this time. Regardless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20% chance of development, within both the next 48 hours and five days. More likely, however, is the potential development of a tropical cyclone over the far eastern Pacific. A Central American Gyre (CAG) –…

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Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

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It appears very likely that the Atlantic’s streak of pre-season tropical activity, which began in 2015, will continue for a sixth year. A trough of low pressure – now designated Invest 90L – is likely to organize into 2020’s first tropical or subtropical cyclone, possibly as soon as Friday evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been tentatively scheduled to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon. As of 2:40 p.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 90L…

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Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

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For the first time in recorded history, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin during the month of April. Tropical Depression One-E – the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific east of 140°W – developed Saturday morning, and has a brief window to intensify into a tropical storm Saturday night before conditions become unfavorable. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT/2:00 p.m. PDT Saturday, Tropical Depression One-E was centered near 14.5°N 116.9°W, and was moving northwestward…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

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There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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Alberto weakens to a Subtropical Depression, tropics expected to be quiet for at least the next week

Alberto weakens to a Subtropical Depression, tropics expected to be quiet for at least the next week

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Subtropical Storm Alberto weakened to a Subtropical Depression on Monday night, and has continued to slowly weaken this morning. The center of Alberto is currently moving through central Alabama, and the heavy rainfall threat continues. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Tuesday, Subtropical Depression Alberto was centered near 33.8°N 87.2°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots…

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Alberto makes landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida

Alberto makes landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida

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Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Laguana Beach, Florida at about 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Monday afternoon. At landfall, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 994 mb. This was down from Alberto’s peak intensity early Monday, when it packed maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 990 mb. Alberto is the first subtropical cyclone to make landfall in the United…

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Alberto headed for landfall in Western Florida Panhandle

Alberto headed for landfall in Western Florida Panhandle

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Subtropical Storm Alberto has only strengthened slightly since yesterday, and is expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon. Due to dry air entrainment and moderate southeasterly wind shear, Alberto has been unable to significantly strengthen, and the storm has not transitioned into a tropical cyclone. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight before landfall if Alberto is able to fight off the dry air, but it appears as if time is running out for significant strengthening….

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SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

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Subtropical Storm Alberto is slightly better organized today. The original low-level circulation over the Northwestern Caribbean has dissipated and a new, well-defined circulation has developed northwest of Cuba. Alberto is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics, and should transition into a fully tropical storm by late Sunday. Most of the model guidance has shifted slightly east today, and it appears as if Alberto will make landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida sometime on Monday. It appears less likely today that…

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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

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For the fourth year in a row, a pre-season tropical or subtropical cyclone has formed over the Atlantic basin. At 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Northwestern Caribbean. Alberto is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, where it will likely find environmental conditions more favorable for strengthening. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, newly-named Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered near 19.7°N 86.8°W, and was moving north-northeast at…

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