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Category: Active Tropics

SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

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Subtropical Storm Alberto is slightly better organized today. The original low-level circulation over the Northwestern Caribbean has dissipated and a new, well-defined circulation has developed northwest of Cuba. Alberto is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics, and should transition into a fully tropical storm by late Sunday. Most of the model guidance has shifted slightly east today, and it appears as if Alberto will make landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida sometime on Monday. It appears less likely today that…

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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

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For the fourth year in a row, a pre-season tropical or subtropical cyclone has formed over the Atlantic basin. At 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Northwestern Caribbean. Alberto is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, where it will likely find environmental conditions more favorable for strengthening. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, newly-named Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered near 19.7°N 86.8°W, and was moving north-northeast at…

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Invest 90L becoming better organized over the Yucatan Peninsula, expected to develop

Invest 90L becoming better organized over the Yucatan Peninsula, expected to develop

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Invest 90L is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning, and will likely make landfall somewhere between the western Florida Panhandle and eastern Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. Models have come into better agreement from yesterday, and it appears likely that the Atlantic will see a pre-season named storm for the fourth season in a row….

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Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

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Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized with Invest 90L, currently located over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong wind shear and land interaction are expected to limit organization for the next couple of days, but some development is likely by Saturday when it emerges into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a near zero percent chance of formation within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The…

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Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

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On Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an elongated surface low over the Northwestern Caribbean Invest 90L – the first “Invest” of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC gives 90L a near zero percent chance of development during the next 48 hours, but a 40 percent chance of development within five days. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

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Tropical cyclone development over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly likely late this week or early this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for a weak surface trough currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, giving the disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. Although upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for a strong storm, a sheared…

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Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

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The first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has a chance to form late next week – and may lead to a messy Memorial Day weekend for Florida and the Southeastern United States, regardless of development. A Central American Gyre (CAG) and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) are expected to increase convection over the Western Caribbean Sea, leading to the formation of a broad area of low pressure. The low pressure area is expected to be pulled…

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Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

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The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday…

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Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

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A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance…

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Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) Sunday afternoon on an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level trough – giving the disturbance a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. It is possible that this area of disturbed weather could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days before it is expected to move inland into the Florida…

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