The first named storm of the 2022 Pacific hurricane season – Agatha – developed Saturday morning southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Agatha is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall in western Oaxaca Monday evening. Agatha’s remnants could emerge into the Bay of Campeche and will need to be monitored for possible redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico late next week.

As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Agatha was centered near 13.2°N 98.4°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Agatha is the first named storm of the eastern Pacific basin of 2022, and the first time since 2019 that a tropical cyclone did not form before the official start of the season. The 1991-2020 average formation date of the first Eastern Pacific named storm is June 10, so Agatha is actually a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Agatha is expected to turn to the north by tomorrow morning, and then turn to the northeast tomorrow evening. Agatha is gradually becoming better organized, and is likely to intensify into a hurricane within the next day or so. For the next 48 hours as it approaches landfall, Agatha will be in a very conducive environment for intensification. According to the 12z GFS-based SHIPS model run, wind shear is expected to remain less than 10 knots, while Agatha traverses sea surface temperatures of near 30°C (86°F) and 500-700 mb relative humidity values are near 75 percent. Rapid intensification remains a possibility, and the current official forecast from the National Hurricane Center projects Agatha to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, which is above the intensity guidance. Agatha could even make a run at major hurricane intensity if it. Hurricanes in the eastern Pacific basin are not unprecedented in May, but Agatha is expected to be the first hurricane in the basin in May since 2015. Since Agatha is expected to be a hurricane at landfall, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado.

After making landfall, Agatha should weaken quickly over Mexico, but it is a possibility that the mid-level remnants of Agatha could lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center currently gives a 20% chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Bay of Campeche from Agatha’s remnants within the next five days. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and the first name on the Atlantic naming list is Alex. The 00z ECMWF model run indicated that a low pressure area will quickly organize into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by next Friday, and then track northeastward towards the coast of Florida. The GFS model has not shown this solution consistently, and has a low pressure area form over the northwestern Caribbean instead. I lean more to the ECMWF solution as the GFS tends to struggle with large gyres such as this one. It appears very unlikely that a tropical cyclone will form in the Atlantic basin by the end of May, which should end a 7-year streak of named storms forming before the official start of the season. Regardless, it may not be long after the official start for the Atlantic’s first named storm.