After a remarkably quiet August, the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins both had a new tropical cyclone develop. Tropical Storm Chantal developed late last night over the far north Atlantic, and is no threat to land. Tropical Depression Ten-E has formed over the eastern Pacific and could become a hurricane late this week, but is expected to remain offshore the Baja California peninsula. Also in the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas could gradually develop into a tropical cyclone by early next week.

Atlantic avoids a dead August as Chantal forms

For a time, it appeared very possible that the Atlantic basin could go the entire month of August without a tropical cyclone forming. That was not the case, as Tropical Storm Chantal was named Tuesday night over the far North Atlantic. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Chantal was centered near 40.2°N 51.6°W, and was moving eastward at about 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Chantal’s deep convection has decreased this afternoon, as it remains in a marginal environment for development. Chantal is expected to turn to the south, and then turn back north this weekend. Chantal is likely to battle very dry air over the coming days, and could degenerate into a remnant low at any time. Chantal is no threat to land.

TD Ten-E forms over the eastern Pacific but expected to remain offshore Baja California

Tropical Depression Ten-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. As of 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Ten-E was centered near 15.4°N 107.3°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Ten-E only has about 72 hours to intensify, so development into a strong hurricane is not likely. The 12z Wednesday SHIPS model indicates that Ten-E is currently located over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F), but is expected to move over progressively cooler waters over the coming days. In addition, wind shear is expected to be light to moderate (about 10-20 knots), which is not ideal for intensification but should be low enough for Ten-E to become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The next name on the eastern Pacific naming list is Ivo.

Disturbance near Bahamas may develop early next week

An area of disturbed weather has developed near the Bahamas, and could gradually organize into a tropical depression by the start of next week. In their 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC gave this disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days. While the overnight ECMWF and GFS models were aggressive with development of this feature, the 12z runs have come in weaker, but these features are tough for global models to forecast in the long range so what exactly occurs remains very unclear. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Dorian.