The Atlantic basin has gone quiet with the post-tropical transition of Tropical Storm Ernesto, but Hurricane Lane in the eastern Pacific Ocean has intensified into a Category 4 hurricane. Lane is the fourth major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, and the fourth Category 4 hurricane of the season. Lane is likely to remain a powerful hurricane over the next few days, though fluctuations in intensity are likely as with most major hurricanes.

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Saturday, Hurricane Lane was centered near 12.3°N 138.2°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 948 mb. This makes Lane a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Once Lane moves west of 140°W, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) will take over advisories on the storm. Though some slight additional intensification cannot be ruled out, Lane is likely near its peak intensity, and we will likely see one or more eyewall replacement cycles over the coming days. Lane is expected to be in a low-shear, warm water environment for the next few days, so if Lane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle, restrengthening may occur. By early next week, wind shear could increase slightly, though models disagree on how much. Mid-level dry air will likely also cause a slow weakening trend after that time as Lane moves west-northwestward. Much of the latest model guidance, including the GFS and ECMWF models, keep Lane south of the Hawaiian Islands, and this is the most likely scenario. It should be stressed that it is still too soon to rule out minor impacts to the Island Chain. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft as well as a NOAA-2 Hurricane Hunter aircraft are both scheduled to visit Lane late Sunday night local time.

Aside from Lane, there is not much going on in the tropics. In the eastern Pacific, a tropical wave about 900 miles west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for tropical cyclone development, and global models show little to no development of this system. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system only a 10 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours. Although mid-late August is when the Atlantic basin normally begins to become more active, there are currently no areas being monitored for potential development over the next five days over the basin.