Hector now a major hurricane, TD 11-E gradually strengthening, several invests may develop

Hector now a major hurricane, TD 11-E gradually strengthening, several invests may develop

The eastern Pacific basin is very active with one hurricane (Hector), one tropical depression (11-E), and two systems likely to become tropical depressions over the next couple days (Invests 94E and 95E). There is also one non-tropical low (Invest 97L) over the high-latitude Atlantic which could gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics over the next few days.

Rainbow loop of Hurricane Hector located over the east-central Pacific. (Source: NOAA SSD)

Hurricane Hector, now a Category 3 hurricane after briefly attaining Category 4 status last night, is expected to slowly weaken as it moves westward into the Central Pacific. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Hector was centered near 14.4°N 136.9°W, and was moving westward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 110 knots (125 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 957 mb. Hector is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward and is expected to remain south of the Hawaiian Islands. However, it is too soon to rule out impacts for the island chain. Hector should gradually weaken as it enters cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment. It is beginning to acquire annular characteristics, with the hurricane having lost most of its banding. Hector is likely to cross into the western Pacific basin and become a typhoon in about 8-10 days.

Over the far eastern Pacific, a tropical disturbance developed into Tropical Depression Eleven-E Saturday afternoon. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Depression Eleven-E was centered near 13.5°N 97.3°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. The depression is gradually getting better organized and is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Ileana later today. Eleven-E is expected to remain offshore the Pacific coast of Mexico and not make landfall. The depression could be absorbed by a stronger system to the west by Thursday, though this remains uncertain.

To the west of Eleven-E there are two disturbances that are likely to develop into tropical cyclones. The first, Invest 94E, was located near 12.7°N 119.1°W at 12:00 UTC Sunday. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 94E a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. The other system, Invest 95E, was located near 13.3°N 104.9°W at 12:00 UTC Sunday. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 95E a 90 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a near 100 percent chance of development within five days. After Ileana, the next two names on the eastern Pacific naming list are John and Kristy.

Visible GOES-16 image of Invest 97L over the North Atlantic Ocean. (Source: Levi Cowan/Tropical Tidbits)

In the Atlantic, a non-tropical low pressure system (Invest 97L) could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward. As of 12:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 97L was located near 32.9°N 49.2°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. 97L already possesses a well defined circulation, but shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited. If 97L develops persistent deep convection near the center of circulation, it would be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 97L a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Debby.

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