The Atlantic refuses to enter a lull. On Monday morning, Tropical Depression Nate became a post-tropical remnant low, but a new tropical storm came to life over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Invest 91L has developed into Tropical Storm Ophelia well southwest of the Azores. Ophelia is the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and has potential to become the season’s tenth hurricane by late week.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ophelia was centered near 31.4°N 39.9°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Ophelia is only in a marginally favorable environment for intensification. Wind shear is moderate, the mid-level atmosphere is quite dry, and sea surface temperatures are a marginal 27°C (80.6°F). The environment is not likely to change much over the coming days, but should be favorable enough to allow for at least slight strengthening. Much of the intensity guidance, as well as the GFS model, predicts that Ophelia will become a Category 1 hurricane by late week and the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast agrees. I do not expect Ophelia to become any stronger than a Category 1 hurricane, due to sea surface temperatures only being marginally warm. Ophelia is expected to move slowly southeastward for the next few days, before turning to the east-northeast or northeast by Thursday. Ophelia is no imminent threat to land, but residents of the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia.

I will be back with another blog post tomorrow.