For the first time in two weeks, it is Friday and the Atlantic has quieted down. That means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic has quieted down after Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy. Cindy has transitioned into a post-tropical low this evening. The Atlantic is soon going to enter its normal “summer quiescence” with no development expected until at least mid-July. Due to a suppressed MJO phase, Atlantic activity during early July is not…
The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak…
The tropics in the Atlantic and East Pacific are likely to remain quiet for the next week or two. Don’t expect the formation of Bret or Beatriz in the near future. Last week, a somewhat favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pattern allowed Tropical Storm Adrian to spin up in the East Pacific. However, the favorable MJO has moved out of the Western Hemisphere, and is heading towards the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. A favorable MJO pattern is characterized by moist, rising…