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Eugene near hurricane strength, watching the remnants of TD Four, tropical wave exiting African coast

Eugene near hurricane strength, watching the remnants of TD Four, tropical wave exiting African coast

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Tropical Storm Eugene is very close to becoming the second hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. In the Atlantic, the remnants of Tropical Depression Four have a low chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone, and a tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa will need to be watched for development late next week when it is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles. Eugene expected to be upgraded to a hurricane, could peak at category 2 status Tropical…

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Tropical Depression Four degenerates into a remnant low, Tropical Storm Eugene forms in East Pacific, watching another wave

Tropical Depression Four degenerates into a remnant low, Tropical Storm Eugene forms in East Pacific, watching another wave

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The short life of Tropical Depression Four came to an end Friday afternoon when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated it a remnant low. On the flip side, Invest 95E in the East Pacific has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, the fifth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. After Tropical Depression Four, another African tropical wave has a chance to develop by late next week near the Lesser Antilles. Dry air ends the life of Tropical Depression…

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Tropical Depression Four likely to degenerate into a remnant low soon, 95E likely to develop, Yet Another African Wave to Watch?

Tropical Depression Four likely to degenerate into a remnant low soon, 95E likely to develop, Yet Another African Wave to Watch?

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The tropics continue to remain active in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Tropical Depression Four formed yesterday in the Atlantic, but is likely to be downgraded to a remnant low soon, possibly even this evening. In the East Pacific, Invest 95E has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, both the GFS and some ECMWF runs have indicated the possibility of yet another African tropical wave to develop east of the…

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Tropical Depression Four forms over tropical Atlantic 

Tropical Depression Four forms over tropical Atlantic 

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Tropical Depression Four has formed over the tropical Atlantic. The depression was centered near 12.8°N 38.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Four is expected to strengthen slightly as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently does not expect that the depression will strengthen into a tropical storm. Increasing wind shear and dry air will likely limit intensification, and the official NHC…

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94L taking its time developing over Atlantic

94L taking its time developing over Atlantic

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Invest 94L – a broad area of low pressure located about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – has a window of developing into a tropical depression during the next couple of days before conditions become less favorable. At 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 94L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours and an 80 percent chance of development within five days. 94L has been moving very slowly westward today. As of…

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Invest 94L likely to develop in Atlantic, three systems in East Pacific may develop, Nanmadol near Japan

Invest 94L likely to develop in Atlantic, three systems in East Pacific may develop, Nanmadol near Japan

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Invest 94L – a broad area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone later this week as it moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 5-10 mph. In the Eastern Pacific, three systems (including Invest 94E) have a chance of development this week as well. In the West Pacific, Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol could pose a threat to Japan tomorrow. Invest 94L: Likely to…

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Tropical wave in Atlantic could develop, Invest 94E designated in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol forms in West Pacific

Tropical wave in Atlantic could develop, Invest 94E designated in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol forms in West Pacific

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The Northern Hemisphere tropics are beginning to get active as they typically do in July. The Atlantic, East Pacific and West Pacific all have areas to watch this week. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave is located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is being monitored for gradual development. In the East Pacific, there is potential for two tropical cyclones to form with Invest 94E and another tropical wave. In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol has formed in…

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A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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July is the second month of Atlantic hurricane season. It is often quiet in the Atlantic (some years have no activity at all in the month), but tends to be slightly more active than June. According to NOAA, 118 tropical storms and 55 hurricanes have formed in the month of July since reliable records began in 1851.  25 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States in the month of July, most recently Category 2 Hurricane Arthur in early July…

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A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

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It is Friday, and as always, that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic! The Atlantic basin remains mostly quiet for the moment, with no active tropical cyclones or investigative areas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not anticipating any development over the next five days. However, several recent runs of the GFS model and its ensembles have been indicating the possibility of development of a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic during the next…

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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

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The amount of Atlantic hurricane activity in a season is most directly driven by two factors: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These two oscillations are the primary indices used in forecasting activity for the Atlantic hurricane season. The AMO is a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Atlantic Ocean, and is strongly correlated with the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. While the ENSO changes nearly every year, the AMO is…

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