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Tag: Active Tropics

Strengthening Hurricane Harvey likely to end the 12-year United States major hurricane drought

Strengthening Hurricane Harvey likely to end the 12-year United States major hurricane drought

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Just a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Harvey rapidly intensified today into the third hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Harvey is likely to intensify into a category 3 major hurricane before its expected landfall in Texas early Saturday, and is likely to end the 12-year drought of no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 25.2°N 94.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph….

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Regenerated Harvey likely to make landfall in South Texas as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, heavy rain the main threat

Regenerated Harvey likely to make landfall in South Texas as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, heavy rain the main threat

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The remnants of Harvey regenerated into a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning after convective organization improved and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed the presence of a closed, but broad, circulation. Harvey has become a little better organized throughout the day, with its central pressure falling a little while winds have remained steady. Harvey likely will not strengthen much during the next 12-24 hours due to its current broad structure, but by late tomorrow…

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Harvey expected to regenerate – a potential major flooding threat for Texas

Harvey expected to regenerate – a potential major flooding threat for Texas

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey crossed the Yucatan Peninsula today and have recently emerged into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Ex-Harvey is expected to regenerate into a Tropical Depression or Storm tomorrow or Thursday, and is likely to make landfall in south-central Texas by late Friday. After that time, it is possible that Harvey could meander for several days, possibly causing serious flooding. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, the remnants of Harvey were centered near 20.8°N 90.9°W, and were moving…

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Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have not become much better organized today, and are unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, Harvey’s remnants are expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, and are expected to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the Gulf of Mexico, and Harvey could strike Northern Mexico, Texas, or perhaps even Louisiana as a strong…

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Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have changed little in organization today, but are likely to regenerate, either over the Gulf of Honduras or Bay of Campeche. Aside from Harvey, Invest 92L east of the Bahamas has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days over the western Atlantic Ocean. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kenneth rapidly intensified into a hurricane this morning, and is now likely going to become a category 3…

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Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

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Tropical Storm Harvey struggled today, weakening into a tropical depression earlier this afternoon. Since then, a reconnaissance aircraft investigated the storm and was unable to close off a well-defined center of circulation.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Harvey to a remnant low at 11:00 p.m. EDT. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, the Remnants of Harvey were centered near 14.3°N 71.8°W, and was moving westward at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated…

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Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

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Tropical Storm Harvey has changed little in organization since yesterday as it has dealt with moderate easterly wind shear, fast movement and dry mid-level air. The center of circulation is not particularly well defined, and significant strengthening is unlikely for the next day or two. However, conditions could become more favorable for strengthening as Harvey enters the western Caribbean Sea by early next week if it manages to avoid land interaction with the Honduras and Nicaragua.  The model guidance is…

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Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

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Hurricane Gert transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday afternoon after its circulation became very elongated and became associated with frontal boundaries. As soon as Gert transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, however, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine developed into Tropical Storm Harvey east of the Windward Islands. Harvey is expected to approach the Windwards as a tropical storm, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the area. East of Harvey is Invest 92L, which has a high chance to…

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Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

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Hurricane Gert is likely peaking in intensity as a category 2 hurricane, the strongest storm of the season so far. Gert was able to develop a well-defined eye and strengthen at an unusually high latitude – the strongest hurricane so far north by wind speed since Alex in 2004. Gert should transition into an extratropical cyclone by early on Friday. There are three tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) that have a chance to develop (including Invests…

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Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

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Tropical Storm Gert strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season late Monday over the subtropical western Atlantic. Despite a rather unimpressive convective structure, microwave imagery indicates that Gert has nearly developed a closed eyewall. Gert is likely to strengthen some more over the next two days, possibly becoming a category 2 hurricane as it accelerates to the northeast. The average second hurricane in the Atlantic does not form until August 28, continuing the fast start to…

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