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Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

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Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized with Invest 90L, currently located over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong wind shear and land interaction are expected to limit organization for the next couple of days, but some development is likely by Saturday when it emerges into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a near zero percent chance of formation within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The…

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Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

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On Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an elongated surface low over the Northwestern Caribbean Invest 90L – the first “Invest” of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC gives 90L a near zero percent chance of development during the next 48 hours, but a 40 percent chance of development within five days. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

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Tropical cyclone development over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly likely late this week or early this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for a weak surface trough currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, giving the disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. Although upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for a strong storm, a sheared…

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Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

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The first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has a chance to form late next week – and may lead to a messy Memorial Day weekend for Florida and the Southeastern United States, regardless of development. A Central American Gyre (CAG) and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) are expected to increase convection over the Western Caribbean Sea, leading to the formation of a broad area of low pressure. The low pressure area is expected to be pulled…

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Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

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The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday…

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Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

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A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance…

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Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) Sunday afternoon on an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level trough – giving the disturbance a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. It is possible that this area of disturbed weather could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days before it is expected to move inland into the Florida…

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It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first tropical cyclone advisory of 2018 Thursday afternoon, with the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression One-E over the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E, which remained poorly organized on Wednesday, became better organized Thursday with the formation of a sufficiently well defined circulation to be classified as a tropical depression. One-E is not expected to become a named tropical storm, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. One-E is…

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Invest 90E running out of time to develop

Invest 90E running out of time to develop

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has struggled to develop persistent deep convection near its elongated center of circulation, and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are diminishing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave it a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 10:25 AM PDT (1:25 PM EDT). This is down from the 70 percent chance NHC gave 90E early Wednesday morning. Because 90E…

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Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has become a little better organized today as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 90E a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. Scatterometer data from Tuesday afternoon indicates that the circulation has become much better defined, and an increase in convective organization will likely result in the formation of a tropical depression on Wednesday. 90E is no threat to land. As…

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